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#GirlMaths: a seemingly innocent and fun way to justify expenses that can have serious financial consequences

<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/janneke-blijlevens-150258">Janneke Blijlevens</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/angel-zhong-1204643">Angel Zhong</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lauren-gurrieri-5402">Lauren Gurrieri</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a></em></p> <p>These shoes are perfect, made for me! I have to get them! But really, I should be paying off my car loan instead. I can’t justify this purchase. Or can I …?</p> <p>We all know this feeling, this tension between what you really want to do and what you really should, or shouldn’t, do. What you are experiencing is <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Leon-Festinger/Cognitive-dissonance">cognitive dissonance</a>.</p> <p>It’s a psychological discomfort we feel when our behaviours and our values or beliefs do not match. Not to worry, we can make that discomfort simply disappear with a good dose of #GirlMaths!</p> <h2>So what is #GirlMaths?</h2> <p>GirlMaths recently became a viral phenomenon on TikTok after New Zealand FVHZM radio hosts Fletch, Vaughan and Hayley used #GirlMaths to justify one host’s mother’s expensive dress purchase as basically free because the dress was going to be worn at least four times.</p> <p><iframe id="tc-infographic-904" class="tc-infographic" style="border: none;" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/904/f0b5e215a804bb450e609c397b96c7fcbf46172f/site/index.html" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>Since then, influencers have added to the #GirlMaths trend with gems such as “If I buy it for $100, wear it, and then resell it for $80 then I basically wore it for free”, “If I pay with cash, it means it’s free”, and “If I just returned something, then purchase something new for the same amount of money, then it’s free”.</p> <p>The reason #GirlMaths resonates so well with everyone and allows it to go viral is that we are very familiar with this type of thinking. The mental gymnastics of #GirlMaths needed to justify cost-per-wear or cash-is-free is a perfect display of behavioural biases and heuristics, such as confirmation bias and denomination bias, being applied to everyday consumption decisions.</p> <h2>The psychology of decision-making</h2> <p>Behavioural biases and heuristics are shortcuts in our thinking that help us make decisions quicker and easier, and are great for reducing the cognitive dissonance we sometimes experience.</p> <p>Our brain has a lot of decisions to make in a day and simply doesn’t have the power to scrutinise every little detail of every <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-shall-we-have-for-dinner-choice-overload-is-a-real-problem-but-these-tips-will-make-your-life-easier-193317">decision</a>. These shortcuts in our thinking may facilitate the decision making process, but they don’t always mean we make the most optimal decisions.</p> <p>Confirmation bias is a bias where you justify your decisions by considering only the evidence that supports what you want and ignore the evidence that would mean you’d have to make a different decision. Cost-per-wear does sound quite financially savvy. It is just like bulk-buying pantry essentials, right?</p> <p>The issue is you are ignoring the facts such as: 1) your disposable income does not match this expense in light of your utility bills, 2) you could rewear a cheaper dress all the same, and 3) by spending money on a fancy dress, you lose the opportunity to spend the money on other better investments for wealth accumulation, or to pay off your car loan.</p> <h2>The financial and social costs</h2> <p>But it’s all a bit of innocent fun, right? Surely people won’t take #GirlMaths that seriously? We beg to differ.</p> <p>First, the term is unnecessarily gendered. Gendered language operates to reinforce societal expectations with a particular gender and can promote stereotypes, biases and binary categories.</p> <p>In this case, the term “girl maths” reinforces problematic stereotypes that equate women with consumption, frivolity and extravagant spending. When stereotypes are reinforced within our own social circles, we are more likely to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167299025007004?casa_token=dOhnQVtFwPsAAAAA:XSBdix5AB6bDfGjNgfbX9OIjstw4KE071GP0l60mAxvHJMaEwkyPERqHXf3z9PhctWJUl6h7TgTHg_U">internalise these as part of our identity</a>.</p> <p>By representing women in a less favourable way, the term operates to both demean and discriminate on a gendered basis. This is heightened by the use of “girl” as opposed to “woman”, which implies someone is childlike or lacking in knowledge or experience. It also begs the question what “boy maths” - set up as something opposing and different - might connote.</p> <p>Second, the #GirlMaths trend reminds us of the power of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/fintok-and-finfluencers-are-on-the-rise-3-tips-to-assess-if-their-advice-has-value-161406">finfluencers</a>” – social media content creators amassing huge online followings by sharing advice on anything from budgeting to buying a house, to investing.</p> <p>These online gurus appeal to Gen Z and millennials, simplifying complex financial concepts into digestible nuggets, much like #GirlMaths simplifies purchases based on cost-per-wear or cash-as-free.</p> <p>Just as regulators such as <a href="https://moneysmart.gov.au/other-ways-to-borrow/buy-now-pay-later-services">ASIC</a> repeatedly warn us of the dangers of buy-now-pay-later services, we must caution the #GirlMaths trend as a dangerous cocktail for young women who are susceptible to the “advice” of finfluencers.</p> <p>The trend resembles BNPL by breaking down expenses into smaller, more palatable portions, making purchases seem justifiable and affordable at the moment.</p> <p>Denomination bias describes this tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts rather than large amounts. We find it much easier to spend $50 four times than $200 all at once.</p> <p>However, the convenience of these shortcuts in our thinking can obscure the hidden financial risks. You may overlook the bigger picture of your financial health, and spend more than what you can afford. That’s why a large number of BNPL users find themselves ending up in a <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/money/credit-cards-and-loans/personal-loans/articles/bnpl-submission-to-treasury">modern debt trap</a>.</p> <h2>The perils of #GirlMaths</h2> <p>The danger of #GirlMaths to young women lies in the cocktail of feeling oddly familiar and reinforced in this biased thinking, the problematic stereotypes that shape identities, and the power of finfluencers, who wield increasing influence over the financial choices and decision-making of young women.</p> <p>While the term may initially come across as innocent fun, it’s crucial not to underestimate its potential harms. Instead, let’s champion the use of inclusive language in finance that doesn’t perpetuate gender biases.</p> <p>And if you’re a staunch supporter of #GirlMaths, we strongly urge you to take into account the possible adverse financial consequences of these quick-fix spending habits.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211903/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/janneke-blijlevens-150258">Janneke Blijlevens</a>, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/angel-zhong-1204643">Angel Zhong</a>, Associate Professor of Finance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lauren-gurrieri-5402">Lauren Gurrieri</a>, Associate Professor in Marketing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/girlmaths-a-seemingly-innocent-and-fun-way-to-justify-expenses-that-can-have-serious-financial-consequences-211903">original article</a>.</em></p>

Money & Banking

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Extreme Hollywood body transformations have become standard preparations for film actors – but we need to consider the consequences

<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gemma-sharp-314703">Gemma Sharp</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bronwyn-dwyer-1453560">Bronwyn Dwyer</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a></em></p> <p>“…when you’re shooting a film like Magic Mike, and you’re doing dance routines for two weeks at a time, you have to peak every day. So that became kind of crazy. We had a gym in the parking lot, and we’d all be lifting weights on set all day,” <a href="https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/interview-channing-tatum-joe-manganiello-magic-mike/">explained actor Joe Manganiello</a>, about performing in the film Magic Mike.</p> <p>It is not unusual for actors to undergo drastic changes in preparation for a role, including gaining muscle and losing body fat for that shredded look. In fact, this is becoming the norm in Hollywood.</p> <p><a href="https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a43945188/jake-gyllenhaals-road-house-transformation/">Jake Gyllenhaal</a> in Road House, <a href="https://www.insider.com/michelle-rodriguez-rege-jean-page-workout-dungeons-and-dragons-sdcc-2022-7">Michelle Rodriguez</a> in Dungeons &amp; Dragons, and <a href="https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a42532547/paul-rudd-marvel-ant-man-interview/">Paul Rudd</a> in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, have all undertaken body modifications for roles this year.</p> <p>As the audience, we readily accept these body modifications to be part of the preparation for the role without necessarily considering the potentially long-term physical and mental health consequences.</p> <h2>So how do they do it?</h2> <p>From what Hollywood shares with the general public about these body modifications, which is generally very limited, it appears these transformations occur through excessive exercise and highly restrictive diets.</p> <p>Nevertheless, these Hollywood workouts are highly popular with ordinary people, with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Chris Hemsworth’s workouts <a href="https://sustainhealth.fit/lifestyle/most-searched-hollywood-actor-workouts/">particularly sought after</a>.</p> <p>These regimens resemble those of competitive bodybuilders, <a href="https://journals.lww.com/hrpjournal/Abstract/2019/07000/Competitive_Bodybuilding__Fitness,_Pathology,_or.3.aspx">whose success also relies on appearance</a>.</p> <p>The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.2165/00007256-200434050-00004">typical process for bodybuilders</a> involves two phases: a “bulking” phase, during which the goal is to have enough energy for muscle growth, and a “cutting” phase, when the aim is to lose weight but not muscle.</p> <p>The end result of such a process is usually highly applauded, even though drastic measures have been taken to achieve such a look.</p> <p>Actors of all genders are undergoing these body transformations for <a href="https://www.sportskeeda.com/comics/10-marvel-actors-whose-body-transformation-shocked-world">various roles</a> such as superheroes, athletes, or the portrayal of real-life people.</p> <h2>What are the consequences?</h2> <p>“I’ve become a little bit more boring now, because I’m older and I feel like if I keep doing what I’ve done in the past I’m going to die. So, I’d prefer not to die,” <a href="https://www.menshealth.com/uk/fitness/lifestyle/a29725245/christian-bale-no-more-body-transformation-roles/">said Christian Bale</a>, who has undertaken multiple extreme transformations for roles.</p> <p>To achieve what is needed for a particular role, extreme measures are often taken. However, the consequences of these measures, such as use of substances, exercise dependence, and an increased risk of developing muscle dysmorphia and/or an eating disorder, is seemingly not common knowledge.</p> <p>A concern for the bodybuilding community is the widespread use of drugs, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4026349/">often multiple drugs at a time not obtained through prescription</a>. Androgenic-anabolic steroids are commonly used which can have extensive negative effects on the human body, including on the cardiovascular system, hormones, metabolism and even psychiatric wellbeing.</p> <p>Exercise dependence can also occur when an individual engages in an extreme amount of exercise, to the point at which <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11936-018-0674-3">physical, psychological or emotional harm</a> can occur. We are not sure exactly why exercise dependence happens, but it could potentially be a form of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19585969.2023.2164841">behavioural addiction</a>.</p> <p>Another risk is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4977020/">muscle dysmorphia</a>, a subtype of body dysmorphic disorder characterised by the individual being preoccupied with the idea their physique is not muscular enough, even if they have a high degree of muscle.</p> <h2>What about the dieting impacts?</h2> <p>There are many similarities between the requirements of bodybuilding and eating disorders. Both are characterised by restrictive diets, high levels of exercise, potential social isolation, and adherence to a <a href="https://journals.lww.com/hrpjournal/Abstract/2019/07000/Competitive_Bodybuilding__Fitness,_Pathology,_or.3.aspx">rigid schedule</a>.</p> <p>The seminal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002231662210249X?via%3Dihub">Minnesota Starvation Experiment</a> fundamentally shaped our understanding of the changes a person can experience when they are consuming less than their daily nutrition energy needs, such as during the “cutting” phase for bodybuilders. This research showed that people who are experiencing starvation for a period of time will experience devastating impacts in the physical, psychological, behavioural and social aspects of their lives.</p> <p>Some of the many documented changes included reductions in heart muscle mass, heart rate and blood pressure, dizziness, fatigue, increased feelings of depression and anxiety, obsessive thoughts about food, and withdrawal from social activities and relationships.</p> <p>Concerningly, even once a person is renourished, the psychological issues around body size and food <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eat.23095">can persist</a>. Therefore, even after an actor has returned to their pre-modification weight and size, it does not mean they have recovered from the consequences that came with that body modification.</p> <h2>What are the impacts on the general public?</h2> <p>Rapid changes in physical appearance are not realistically achievable for most people. So seeing actors doing this seemingly easily with the assistance of their professional teams sets an <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40894-022-00179-4">unrealistic standard</a>.</p> <p>For people without the same income or access to resources to achieve these body modifications in a safe way, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8872588/">more extreme means</a> would be undertaken and consequent damage to mental and physical wellbeing can ensue. These body modifications are definitely a case of “do not try this at home”.</p> <p>There are many risks when undertaking dramatic body modifications, most of which are not talked about in public. Actors are just as vulnerable to these risks, despite us rarely seeing what exactly they go through to achieve these dramatic transformations. Hollywood is a highly competitive environment, and being honest about body modification and its consequences could stop an actor landing their next gig.</p> <p>We don’t recommend body modifications in any way, but if someone does want to make a change to their lifestyle, we strongly recommend consulting with a team of health professionals to ensure physical and psychological safety during the process and beyond.</p> <p>––</p> <p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, do not hesitate to reach out for support. For concerns around eating, exercise, or body image visit the <a href="https://butterfly.org.au/">Butterfly Foundation</a> or call the national helpline on 1800 33 4673. For concerns around drug use visit <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/drug-help">Drug Help</a> or call the National Alcohol and Other Drug Hotline on 1800 250 015.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207722/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></em></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gemma-sharp-314703">Gemma Sharp</a>, Associate Professor, NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow &amp; Senior Clinical Psychologist, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bronwyn-dwyer-1453560">Bronwyn Dwyer</a>, , <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: 20th Century Fox</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-hollywood-body-transformations-have-become-standard-preparations-for-film-actors-but-we-need-to-consider-the-consequences-207722">original article</a>.</em></p>

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Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2030s, say scientists – this would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences

<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-bamber-102567">Jonathan Bamber</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bristol-1211">University of Bristol</a></em></p> <p>The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8">Nature Communications</a>.</p> <p>Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast). What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences.</p> <p>The Arctic has been experiencing climate heating <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-new-research-188474">faster than any other part of the planet</a>. As it is at the frontline of climate change, the eyes of many scientists and local indigenous people have been on the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in winter. This thin film of frozen seawater expands and contracts with the seasons, reaching a minimum area in September each year.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=184&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=184&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=184&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=232&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=232&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=232&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animation of Arctic sea ice from space" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">Arctic sea ice grows until March and then shrinks until September.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2022/nasa-finds-2022-arctic-winter-sea-ice-10th-lowest-on-record">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p>The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around <a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-extent0/">7 million sq km to 4 million</a>. That is a loss equivalent to roughly the size of India or 12 UKs. In other words, it’s a big signal, one of the most stark and dramatic signs of fundamental change to the climate system anywhere in the world.</p> <p>As a consequence, there has been considerable effort invested in determining when the Arctic Ocean might first become ice-free in summer, sometimes called a “blue ocean event” and defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq kms. This threshold is used mainly because older, thicker ice along parts of Canada and northern Greenland is expected to remain long after the rest of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. We can’t put an exact date on the last blue ocean event, but one in the near future would likely mean open water at the North Pole for the first time in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10581">thousands of years</a>.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=712&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=712&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=712&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=895&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=895&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=895&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Annotated map of Arctic" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">The thickest ice (highlighted in pink) is likely to remain even if the North Pole is ice-free.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/05/new-tools-for-sea-ice-thickness/">NERC Center for Polar Observation and Modelling</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p>One problem with predicting when this might occur is that sea ice is notoriously difficult to model because it is influenced by both atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as the flow of heat between these two parts of the climate system. That means that the climate models – powerful computer programs used to simulate the environment – need to get all of these components right to be able to accurately predict changes in sea ice extent.</p> <h2>Melting faster than models predicted</h2> <p>Back in the 2000s, an assessment of early generations of climate models found they generally <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029703">underpredicted the loss of sea ice</a> when compared to satellite data showing what actually happened. The models predicted a loss of about 2.5% per decade, while the observations were closer to 8%.</p> <p>The next generation of models did better but were <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052676">still not matching observations</a> which, at that time were suggesting a blue ocean event would happen by mid-century. Indeed, the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">IPCC climate science report</a>, published in 2021, reaches a similar conclusion about the timing of an ice-free Arctic Ocean.</p> <p>As a consequence of the problems with the climate models, some scientists have attempted to extrapolate the observational record resulting in the controversial and, ultimately, incorrect assertion that this would happen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year">during the mid 2010s</a>. This did not help the credibility of the scientific community and its ability to make reliable projections.</p> <h2>Ice-free by 2030?</h2> <p>The scientists behind the latest study have taken a different approach by, in effect, calibrating the models with the observations and then using this calibrated solution to project sea ice decline. This makes a lot of sense, because it reduces the effect of small biases in the climate models that can in turn bias the sea ice projections. They call these “observationally constrained” projections and find that the Arctic could become ice-free in summer as early as 2030, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=394&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=394&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=394&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=495&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=495&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=495&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Walruses on ice floe" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">Walruses depend on sea ice. As it melts, they’re being forced onto land.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">outdoorsman / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure> <p>There is still plenty of uncertainty around the exact date – about <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL070067">20 years or so</a> – because of natural chaotic fluctuations in the climate system. But compared to previous research, the new study still brings forward the most likely timing of a blue ocean event by about a decade.</p> <h2>Why this matters</h2> <p>You might be asking the question: so what? Other than some polar bears not being able to hunt in the same way, why does it matter? Perhaps there are even benefits as the previous US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/06/politics/pompeo-sea-ice-arctic-council/index.html">once declared</a> – it means ships from Asia can potentially save around 3,000 miles of journey to European ports in summer at least.</p> <p>But Arctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system. As it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean, removing this ice is predicted to further accelerate warming, through a process known as a positive feedback. This, in turn, will make the Greenland ice sheet <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059770">melt faster</a>, which is already a major contributor to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021RG000757">sea level rise</a>.</p> <p>The loss of sea ice in summer would also mean changes in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/ccp6/">atmospheric circulation and storm tracks</a>, and fundamental shifts in ocean biological activity. These are just some of the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021RG000757">highly undesirable consequences</a> and it is fair to say that the disadvantages will far outweigh the slender benefits.</p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-bamber-102567">Jonathan Bamber</a>, Professor of Physical Geography, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bristol-1211">University of Bristol</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-say-scientists-this-would-have-global-damaging-and-dangerous-consequences-206974">original article</a>.</em></p> <p><em>Images: Getty</em></p>

Travel Trouble

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Breeder faces the consequences for “squalid” puppy farm

<p>A 60-year-old man from Western Australia has been dealt over $100,000 in penalties, an animal cruelty charge, and a 40 year animal ownership ban in the wake of RSPCA inspectors seizing 39 dogs from him. </p> <p>The horrific conditions in which the dogs were living were brought to their attention after a customer came by to purchase a dog from the man’s Bridgetown property in January 2022. He was asking for $5000 a puppy, despite the filth the dogs were being forced to live in - reportedly facing everything from infection to drinking from sewage pipes. </p> <p>In a post to RSPCA WA’s Facebook account, it was revealed that the man “has been given what amounts to a lifetime ban from breeding animals after RSPCA inspectors seized 39 labradoodles from his Bridgetown home in January.</p> <p>“The offender was banned from owning any animal for 40 years, with one notable exception; the Magistrate ruled he could have up to three sterilised dogs.</p> <p>The offender, who pleaded guilty to 28 charges of animal cruelty, has also been fined $112,000, $64,000 of which was suspended for two years.” </p> <p>It went on to outline the conditions the inspector had encountered, and that - importantly - the “The dogs continue to recover in the care of RSPCA WA.”</p> <p><iframe style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FRSPCAWA%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02kdjk1JMbPpBanhpEFJGKd2wB9sCzuhHi4EivkDEckADnUFNgJb24Wmdgt8MuLDaRl&amp;show_text=true&amp;width=500" width="500" height="708" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>Kylie Green, Inspector Manager for RSPCA WA, explained that the dogs were examined by a veterinarian after they were removed from the property, and discovered that they were suffering from a whole host of conditions - with everything from ear infections to matted fur, dental disease, and conjunctivitis. </p> <p>“A lot of the dogs and puppies were also suffering from significant psychological harm, as determined by a veterinary behaviourist,” she added. </p> <p>“Some of them just stood in their kennels for weeks after they first came here, staring at the wall and refusing to interact.</p> <p>“It’s a credit to our expert staff and network of dedicated foster carers that they’ve come as far as they have, but this is what people need to stop and consider when they are looking to buy a ‘cute’ puppy.”</p> <p>Kyle went on to stress the importance of evaluating the conditions any puppy is being raised in before buying, whether “you buy from an unregistered breeder, if you buy off the internet or social media”. As without “clean, safe conditions” and a “happy and healthy” mother, “there’s a chance you are supporting this kind of cruelty.” </p> <p><em>Images: RSPCA WA / Facebook</em></p>

Family & Pets

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Even if TikTok and other apps are collecting your data, what are the actual consequences?

<p>By now, most of us are aware social media companies collect vast amounts of our information. By doing this, they can target us with ads and monetise our attention. The latest chapter in the data-privacy debate concerns one of the world’s most popular apps among young people – TikTok.</p> <p>Yet anecdotally it seems the potential risks aren’t really something young people care about. Some were <a href="https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1548962230741487617">interviewed</a> by The Project this week regarding the risk of their TikTok data being accessed from China.</p> <p>They said it wouldn’t stop them using the app. “Everyone at the moment has access to everything,” one person said. Another said they didn’t “have much to hide from the Chinese government”.</p> <p>Are these fair assessments? Or should Australians actually be worried about yet another social media company taking their data?</p> <p><strong>What’s happening with TikTok?</strong></p> <p>In a 2020 Australian parliamentary hearing on foreign interference through social media, TikTok representatives <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=committees/commsen/1a5e6393-fec4-4222-945b-859e3f8ebd17/&amp;sid=0002">stressed</a>: “TikTok Australia data is stored in the US and Singapore, and the security and privacy of this data are our highest priority.”</p> <p>But as Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Fergus Ryan has <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/its-time-tiktok-australia-came-clean/">observed</a>, it’s not about where the data are <em>stored</em>, but who has <em>access</em>.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">'Where the data is stored is really immaterial if the data can be accessed from Beijing at any point, and that's what we have known for a couple of years' | <a href="https://twitter.com/ASPI_ICPC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ASPI_ICPC</a>'s <a href="https://twitter.com/fryan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@fryan</a> spoke to <a href="https://twitter.com/abcnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@abcnews</a> about Tik Tok &amp; data security </p> <p>📺 Watch the interview: <a href="https://t.co/iKIXqj2Rt2">https://t.co/iKIXqj2Rt2</a></p> <p>— ASPI (@ASPI_org) <a href="https://twitter.com/ASPI_org/status/1549185634837102592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 19, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p>On June 17, BuzzFeed published a <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emilybakerwhite/tiktok-tapes-us-user-data-china-bytedance-access">report</a> based on 80 leaked internal TikTok meetings which seemed to confirm access to US TikTok data by Chinese actors. The report refers to multiple examples of data access by TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, which is based in China.</p> <p>Then in July, TikTok Australia’s director of public policy, Brent Thomas, wrote to the shadow minister for cyber security, James Paterson, regarding China’s access to Australian user data.</p> <p>Thomas denied having been asked for data from China or having “given data to the Chinese government” – but he also noted access is “based on the need to access data”. So there’s good reason to believe Australian users’ data <em>may</em> be accessed from China.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">TikTok Australia has replied to my letter and admitted that Australian user data is also accessible in mainland China, putting it within reach of the Chinese government, despite their previous assurances it was safe because it was stored in the US and Singapore <a href="https://t.co/ITY1HNEo6v">pic.twitter.com/ITY1HNEo6v</a></p> <p>— James Paterson (@SenPaterson) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenPaterson/status/1546957121274621952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 12, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p><strong>Is TikTok worse than other platforms?</strong></p> <p>TikTok collects rich consumer information, including personal information and behavioural data from people’s activity on the app. In this respect, it’s not different from other social media companies.</p> <p>They all need oceans of user data to push ads onto us, and run data analytics behind a shiny facade of cute cats and trendy dances.</p> <p>However, TikTok’s corporate roots extend to authoritarian China – and not the US, where most of our other social media come from. This carries implications for TikTok users.</p> <p>Hypothetically, since TikTok moderates content according to Beijing’s foreign policy goals, it’s possible TikTok could apply censorship controls over Australian users.</p> <p>This means users’ feeds would be filtered to omit anything that doesn’t fit the Chinese government’s agenda, such as support for Taiwan’s sovereignty, as an example. In “shadowbanning”, a user’s posts appear to have been published to the user themselves, but are not visible to anyone else.</p> <p>It’s worth noting this censorship risk isn’t hypothetical. In 2019, information about Hong Kong protests was reported to have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/25/revealed-how-tiktok-censors-videos-that-do-not-please-beijing">censored</a> not only on Douyin, China’s domestic version of TikTok, but also on TikTok itself.</p> <p>Then in 2020, ASPI <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/tiktok-wechat">found</a> hashtags related to LGBTQ+ are suppressed in at least eight languages on TikTok. In response to ASPI’s research, a TikTok spokesperson said the hashtags may be restricted as part of the company’s localisation strategy and due to local laws.</p> <p>In Thailand, keywords such as #acab, #gayArab and anti-monarchy hashtags were found to be shadowbanned.</p> <p>Within China, Douyin complies with strict national content regulation. This includes censoring information about the religious movement Falun Gong and the Tiananmen massacre, among other examples.</p> <p>The legal environment in China forces Chinese internet product and service providers to work with government authorities. If Chinese companies disagree, or are unaware of their obligations, they can be slapped with legal and/or financial penalties and be forcefully shut down.</p> <p>In 2012, another social media product run by the founder of ByteDance, Yiming Zhang, was forced to close. Zhang fell into political line in a <a href="https://chinamediaproject.org/2018/04/11/tech-shame-in-the-new-era/">public apology</a>. He acknowledged the platform deviated from “public opinion guidance” by not moderating content that goes against “socialist core values”.</p> <p>Individual TikTok users should seriously consider leaving the app until issues of global censorship are clearly addressed.</p> <p><strong>But don’t forget, it’s not just TikTok</strong></p> <p>Meta products, such as Facebook and Instagram, also measure our interests by the seconds we spend looking at certain posts. They aggregate those behavioural data with our personal information to try to keep us hooked – looking at ads for as long as possible.</p> <p><a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/holding-facebook-accountable-for-digital-redlining">Some real cases</a> of targeted advertising on social media have contributed to “digital redlining” – the use of technology to perpetuate social discrimination.</p> <p>In 2018, Facebook came under fire for showing some employment ads only to men. In 2019, it settled another digital redlining <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/mar/28/facebook-ads-housing-discrimination-charges-us-government-hud">case</a> over discriminatory practices in which housing ads were targeted to certain users on the basis of “race, colour, national origin and religion”.</p> <p>And in 2021, before the US Capitol breach, military and defence product ads <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/facebook-profits-military-gear-ads-capitol-riot">were running</a> alongside conversations about a coup.</p> <p>Then there are some worst-case scenarios. The 2018 Cambridge Analytica scandal <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-scandal-fallout.html">revealed</a> how Meta (then Facebook) exposed users’ data to the political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica without their consent.</p> <p>Cambridge Analytica harvested up to 87 million users’ data from Facebook, derived psychological user profiles and used these to tailor pro-Trump messaging to them. This likely had an influence on the 2016 US presidential election.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475064/original/file-20220720-19-dzfe0b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="A phone shows a TikTok video playing on the screen, with a person mid-dance." /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">To what extent are we willing to ignore potential risks with social platforms, in favour of addictive content?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure> <p>With TikTok, the most immediate concern for the average Australian user is content censorship – not direct prosecution. But within China, there are recurring instances of Chinese nationals being <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3176605/crackdown-chinas-moderate-rights-voices-how-tweets-are-now">detained or even jailed</a> for using both Chinese and international social media.</p> <p>You can see how the consequences of mass data harvesting are not hypothetical. We need to demand more transparency from not just TikTok but all major social platforms regarding how data are used.</p> <p>Let’s continue the <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/tiktok-s-privacy-fundamentally-incompatible-with-australia-20220713-p5b18l">regulation debate</a> TikTok has accelerated. We should look to update privacy protections and embed transparency into Australia’s national regulatory guidelines – for whatever the next big social media app happens to be.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187277/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ausma-bernot-963292" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ausma Bernot</a>, PhD Candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Griffith University</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-if-tiktok-and-other-apps-are-collecting-your-data-what-are-the-actual-consequences-187277" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>.</em></p> <p><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Technology

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Time to remove vaccine mandates? Not so fast – it could have unintended consequences

<p>Several Australian states have used mandates to drive up COVID vaccination rates. Governments justified the mandates on the basis of <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=479962466825937&set=pb.100044365632393.-2207520000..&type=3">preventing the spread of disease</a> and <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/93754">protecting the vulnerable</a>.</p> <p>Now many states are rolling back these mandates, with Queensland <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-05/qld-coronavirus-covid19-vaccination-mandate-eased-april-14/100958850">removing the requirement to show you’re vaccinated</a> before entering cafes, pubs, galleries and other public spaces from tomorrow.</p> <p>It would be nice to think that when mandates have served their purpose, they can be removed. In practice, removing mandates may affect public attitudes about the importance of vaccination and the likelihood of getting boosters.</p> <p><strong>Remind me, what were the mandates?</strong></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/vaccine-passports-are-coming-to-australia-how-will-they-work-and-what-will-you-need-them-for-167531">Public space mandates</a> involve governments mandating that venues (such as restaurants, libraries and sporting venues) check individuals’ vaccination status and <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-time-to-rethink-vaccine-mandates-for-dining-fitness-and-events-we-asked-5-experts-176356">exclude the unvaccinated</a>. This is facilitated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-a-france-style-vaccine-mandate-for-public-spaces-work-in-australia-legally-yes-but-its-complicated-165814">vaccine passports and certificates</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X21015309?via%3Dihub">Government employment mandates</a> involve governments requiring workers in specific industries to be vaccinated. Businesses and organisations may also implement their own policies requiring the vaccination of their staff, their clients, or both.</p> <p>Most states and territories embraced public space mandates and all have required vaccination of aged and health-care workers.</p> <p>But many are on their way out. NSW eased its requirements last year. South Australia has recently revoked mandates for police, teachers and transport workers. Queensland’s new policy is noted above.</p> <p>Victoria, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory are sitting with their existing requirements for now.</p> <p><strong>What could happen next?</strong></p> <p>It’s unclear what impact removing vaccine mandates will have in Australia. However, we can learn from other public health measures and COVID vaccine mandates implemented overseas.</p> <p>Seat-belt laws converted a government requirement into a widespread social norm. Car manufacturers reinforced the norm with vehicles that beep at us when we don’t comply.</p> <p>But just because something has become habitual doesn’t mean we can lose the law. If governments removed the seat-belt law now and expected us to comply because we are informed, educated, and socialised, some people would still conclude that seat belts are no longer important. Removal of a requirement can send a bad message.</p> <p>The Italian government learned this when the region of Veneto suspended childhood vaccine mandates for four childhood vaccines in 2007. Officials thought the region’s wealthy and educated population would continue to vaccinate their children if the regional government provided strong education and messaging.</p> <p>They were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-021-09427-1">wrong</a>. Their strategy worked until there was a national vaccine scare in 2012. Vaccination rates in Veneto plummeted faster than anywhere else in the country.</p> <p>Eventually, the national government <a href="https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/recent-vaccine-mandates-in-the-united-states-europe-and-australia">mandated more vaccines</a> for the whole country.</p> <p>Other countries have already experimented with introducing, removing, and sometimes re-introducing mandates. Some, such as <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00063-7/fulltext">Austria</a> and the <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/vaccine-mandates">United Kingdom</a>, have flip-flopped, providing little opportunity to study the impact of their mandates’ introduction or removal.</p> <p>Israel, which vaccinated its population promptly with Pfizer to the envy of the world, used a “public space” mandate (with an opt-out of a negative COVID test). The mandate has been <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8582817/">switched on and off</a> depending on the disease situation at the time.</p> <p>Unfortunately, Israelis’ uptake of subsequent doses has <a href="https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general">dropped over time</a>, but its government still <a href="https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/israel-rolls-back-green-pass-as-prime-minister-declares-the-covid-wave-is-breaking/news-story/b6f9ce495359166126b16c477af062b3">ended the mandate</a> in February.</p> <p>Mandates are also not without <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2021/215/11/policy-considerations-mandatory-covid-19-vaccination-collaboration-social">risks and costs</a>. They can provoke reactance, making those who are reluctant to vaccinate more determined not to do so. They may also prompt activism against vaccines and mandates.</p> <p><strong>High vaccination rates help contain COVID</strong></p> <p>One of the biggest challenges is nobody knows what the next phase of COVID will look like. Neither infection nor the current vaccines provide long-lasting immunity. We don’t know whether the next strain will continue the trajectory towards less serious symptoms started by Omicron (and helped by high vaccination rates).</p> <p>Whether we continue to be able to stay on top of COVID and whether the disease continues to remain less severe in most people infected will depend on maintaining high vaccination coverage rates.</p> <p>Governments across the nation and the world have struggled to get third doses into populations at the same level and with the same enthusiasm people showed towards the first two.</p> <p>Uptake in paediatric populations is also lagging in Australia – and there are no mandates.</p> <p>Now adults are being asked to prepare for and accept our fourth doses.</p> <p><strong>Leading the way</strong></p> <p>Western Australia has one of the highest rates of uptake in the country, with 76.7% of people aged over 16 <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=533610064794510&set=a.263657845123068">triple dosed</a>. This compares with the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/04/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-8-april-2022.pdf">national average</a> of 52.3%.</p> <p>It’s no coincidence the state’s employment mandates, which cover 75% of the workforce, require workers have their third dose within a month of becoming eligible.</p> <p>The WA mandate did not contain three doses to begin with, but it was very easy for the government to build it in.</p> <p>Faced with rolling back the mandate or keeping it operational for the fourth dose, the government will have to grapple with whether the population continues to support these measures – and there are definitely people who reluctantly accepted two doses and are not prepared to keep having more.</p> <p>WA’s public space mandate only covers two doses for now.</p> <p>WA’s COVID vaccination experience has shown that mandates, including for third doses, drive high levels of uptake, and are <a href="https://www.ijhpm.com/article_4210.html">easy for governments to implement</a>.</p> <p>However, much of the rest of Australia is moving in an opposite direction to WA in removing its mandates.</p> <p>As we live through the continued natural experiment of living with COVID – and not allowing it to defeat us – we now move into a new phase of making sense of what to do with the policy instruments governments used.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180781/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-attwell-94905" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Katie Attwell</a>, Associate professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The University of Western Australia</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-remove-vaccine-mandates-not-so-fast-it-could-have-unintended-consequences-180781" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>.</em></p> <p><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Domestic Travel

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Acting selfishly has consequences right now – why ethical decision making is imperative in the coronavirus crisis

<p>As the country moves into lockdown mode in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we are increasingly faced with serious ethical questions about what ordinary people should be obliged to do for others.</p> <p>These challenges can perhaps best be seen in the outrage as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/bondi-beach-closed-over-crowds-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/12077618">people flocked to Bondi Beach</a> and packed into <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-fury-as-people-ignore-social-distancing-advice-flock-to-beaches-pubs-cafes/news-story/f7eb3fdb923a63a9ff5c5981654b8077">pubs and cafes</a> over the weekend, despite strict social-distancing rules.</p> <p>This also helps explain the anger on social media over people <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/lives-at-risk-as-victorians-lie-about-overseas-travel-in-order-to-see-gps-20200318-p54bdg.html">lying about overseas travel in order to get doctors’ appointments</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-plenty-of-toilet-paper-so-why-are-people-hoarding-it-133300">hoarding toilet paper</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349">defying quarantine orders</a>, even as they <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/an-australian-woman-breached-coronavirus-quarantine-in-beijing-to-go-for-a-jog--and-lost-her-job-c-755123">defend their conduct self-righteously</a>.</p> <p>People are even being <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-social-etiquette-in-the-age-of-covid19/news-story/f7218797a49a7731a72c9230293ab3c9">met with disdain when they ask others to keep their distance</a>.</p> <p>A coronavirus cautionary tale from Italy: Don’t do what we did<br /><br />Many of us were too selfish to follow suggestions to change our behavior. Now we’re in lockdown and people are needlessly dying. <a href="https://t.co/N43ZxSUVBo">https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/ …</a></p> <p><strong>Why is ethical action critical?</strong></p> <p>In the face of a pandemic, legislation and police enforcement can only do so much. <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/fatigue-will-be-the-carrier-of-the-second-coronavirus-wave/articleshow/74725529.cms?from=mdr">Ethical decision-making by ordinary people becomes crucial</a>.</p> <p>While laws and policies <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-the-laws-mandating-self-isolation-and-how-will-they-be-enforced-133757">can be slow to evolve</a>, individuals can alter their behaviours instantaneously. Rules and bans can be ham-fisted or crude, but ethical decision-makers can respond intelligently to their own contexts.</p> <p>Above all, ethical decision-makers can be intrinsically motivated to do right by the community, ensuring compliance of social-distancing rules in situations where effective policing is logistically impossible.</p> <p>Even as Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-23/victoria-covid-19-coronavirus-shutdown/12080132">announced a special taskforce</a> to enforce an immediate shutdown of venues and restrictions on gatherings, he appealed to people’s consciences in the strongest terms:</p> <p><em>If you act selfishly, people will die.</em></p> <p>This is why leaders have called for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/how-australia-will-enforce-coronavirus-self-isolation-rules-for-overseas-arrivals">voluntary cooperation</a> during the crisis. Laws and political action alone will not save us. An effective response to the pandemic requires ordinary people making sound ethical decisions.</p> <p><strong>Why is this so challenging?</strong></p> <p>As we’ve seen from the images over the weekend, ethical decision-making in response to a pandemic is not easy. Many people are simply not taking the crisis seriously enough.</p> <p>One of the reasons for this is confusion. Rules change almost daily, meaning some people won’t know the latest requirements. Others might not appreciate the stakes involved with their behaviours, and that it is not only their own health they are risking.</p> <p>Also, rules can be ambiguous. For example, what happens if you’re <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/bondi-beach-closed-over-crowds-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/12077618">keeping an appropriate distance from others</a> at the beach or park, and it starts becoming crowded? Who should leave? Should those who arrived first have priority? Or should those who have had “their turn” move on?</p> <p>In ambiguous situations, people take cues from those around them. If we saw others interacting normally at the park or pub (before they were closed), we could conclude it’s probably okay. We might also wonder if there’s any point in obeying the rules if others aren’t.</p> <p>Furthermore, it’s easy to question the legitimacy of the new rules. Ordinarily, <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2019/09/09/the-threats-and-promises-of-multidimensional-legitimacy/">we judge rules based on many factors</a>, such as:</p> <ul> <li>Is it the right thing to do?</li> <li>Is it fair?</li> <li>Will it be effective?</li> </ul> <p>In fluid situations, these conditions are hard to meet. Consider the case of <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-sick-leave-were-not-much-better-prepared-for-coronavirus-than-the-us-133231">casual workers with no paid sick leave</a> who might not be able to pay rent or might lose their jobs if they comply with quarantine orders. Demanding they shoulder this burden can seem unfair.</p> <p>Similarly, many <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-australia-is-not-putting-teachers-in-the-coronavirus-firing-line-their-risk-is-very-low-134021">teachers feel they are taking unfair risks</a> to keep schools open.</p> <p>In the most difficult cases, people must weigh up conflicting moral priorities. Do they support their elderly parents by visiting them, or is this risking infection?</p> <p>For these reasons, even conscientious ethical decision-makers can struggle.</p> <p><strong>Why we might make poor decisions</strong></p> <p>Unfortunately, human beings suffer from decision-making biases.</p> <p>For example, we often <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959354302012003015">interpret expectations as entitlements</a>. We convert our ordinary expectations about social, work, educational, religious and sporting routines into demands that these should continue.</p> <p>This is one reason why <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/20/america-needs-be-war-footing/">some call for a “war footing”</a>, urging people to acknowledge a “new normal”.</p> <p>In addition, people tend to be self-interested and prioritise immediate goals. Abstract concerns about risks to community infection can seem less salient than the pressures of the moment.</p> <p>This bias can affect ethical decision-making. It allows us to “<a href="https://www.everydaysociologyblog.com/2008/10/techniques-of-n.html">neutralise</a>” rules by inventing stories about why they don’t apply to us, given our special circumstances. These self-serving excuses are a classic source of serious moral error.</p> <p><strong>Some guidelines to follow</strong></p> <p>There are no easy answers to the myriad moral challenges that COVID-19 thrusts upon us. However, here are five rules of thumb:</p> <ol> <li>Common sense ethics still applies – and the stakes make it more important than ever. Never lie about or conceal your history or infection status. Comply strictly with authoritative directives about quarantine.</li> <li>Stay informed about the latest rules.</li> <li>Never force your decisions on other people. Even if you aren’t personally concerned about social distancing, acknowledge that others are entitled to their space.</li> <li>If others are behaving recklessly or inappropriately, try to engage with them constructively. Outrage can be appropriate, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/actually-its-ok-to-disagree-here-are-5-ways-we-can-argue-better-121178">understanding can be better at changing minds</a>.</li> <li>Gird yourself for the long haul. “<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/fatigue-will-be-the-carrier-of-the-second-coronavirus-wave/articleshow/74725529.cms?from=mdr">Fatigue</a>” can set in over long periods with changing rules. As the weeks in a state of emergency turn into months, we can be worn down and become less diligent in our ethical decision-making.</li> </ol> <p>Finally, remember the positives. As the stakes rise, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/mar/21/like-an-emotional-mexican-wave-how-coronavirus-kindness-makes-the-world-seem-smaller">acts of kindness and support</a> are more important than ever before.</p> <p><em>Written by Hugh Breakey. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/acting-selfishly-has-consequences-right-now-why-ethical-decision-making-is-imperative-in-the-coronavirus-crisis-134350">The Conversation.</a> </em></p>

Cruising

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Why the benefits of a cashless society are greatly overrated

<p>After recreational cannabis use became legal in Canada last October, research shows the number of<span> </span><a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2019/02/26/legalising-cannabis-reduced-the-use-of-cash-in-canada/">bank notes in circulation</a><span> </span>fell sharply. Before, marijuana buyers used cash to keep their transactions anonymous. After, there was a massive switch to the convenience of cashless payments.</p> <p>It’s a prime example of what makes a cashless society so attractive to law makers and enforcers wanting to put the squeeze on the “black economy” that can’t be tracked or taxed.</p> <p>But not everyone clinging to cash has illicit motivations.</p> <p>This month Philadelphia became the first major US city requiring all merchants to accept cash. This week the state of New Jersey followed suit. Other US cities and states are considering the same.</p> <p>The chief concern is that cashless payment systems discriminate<span> </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/philadelphia-is-first-u-s-city-to-ban-cashless-stores-11551967201?mod=hp_lead_pos5">against the “unbanked”</a><span> </span>– those without a bank account – making life harder for those already on the margins. “It’s really a fairness issue,” said the<span> </span><a href="https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadelphia-ban-cashless-stores-first-us-city/">councillor who sponsored the ban</a>. “Equal access is what we’re trying to get.”</p> <p>So as nations make plans to become cashless societies, and automated teller machines start to go the way of telephone booths, it’s timely to consider the pros and cons of cashless payments. We need ensure our enthusiastic<span> </span><a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-may-be-closer-to-being-a-cashless-society-but-it-wont-happen-by-2020-75258">march to the future</a><span> </span>does not trample over people or leave them behind.</p> <p><strong>Counting the unbanked</strong></p> <p>A<span> </span><a href="https://economicinclusion.gov/">national survey</a><span> </span>by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation shows about 8.4 million US households – or 6.5% of all households – were unbanked in 2017. Philadelphia’s new law is primarily to protect such people.</p> <p>Taking effect on July 1, the law requires most stores to accept cash, and forbids them charging a surcharge for paying with cash. New York, Washington and Chicago are among the cities investigating similar measures.</p> <p>In Britain a<span> </span><a href="https://www.accesstocash.org.uk/media/1087/final-report-final-web.pdf">review of cash accessibility</a><span> </span>headed by former chief financial ombudsman Natalie Ceeney has urged financial regulators to stop the country “<a href="https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/33482/access-to-cash-system-on-verge-of-collapse-warns-report?utm_medium=newsflash&amp;utm_source=2019-3-6&amp;member=103992">sleepwalking</a>” into a cashless society. Its report, published this month, recommends a national guarantee that consumers will be able to access and use cash for as long as they need it.</p> <p>About 17% of the British population – over 8 million adults – would struggle to cope in a cashless society, the report says: “While most of society recognises the benefits of digital payments, our research shows the technology doesn’t yet work for everyone.”</p> <p>The tip of the iceberg is the decline in bank branches and ATMs. Two-thirds of bank branches have closed<span> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1947ac8e-e8d2-11e8-a34c-663b3f553b35">in the past three decades</a>, and the rate of closure in accelerating. Cashpoints are disappearing at<span> </span><a href="https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/33386/the-numbers-dont-add-up-universal-provision-of-access-to-cash-called-into-question?utm_medium=dailynewsletter&amp;utm_source=2019-2-15&amp;member=6040">a rate of nearly 500 a month</a>.</p> <p><strong>Learning from Sweden</strong></p> <p>But this is simply the most obvious symptom, according to the Ceeney report, with evidence from other countries demonstrating the issue of merchants accepting cash is more important.</p> <p>“Sweden, the most cashless society in the world, outlines the dangers of sleepwalking into a cashless society: millions of people could potentially be left out of the economy,” it says, “and face increased risks of isolation, exploitation, debt and rising costs.”</p> <p>About 85% of transactions in Sweden are now digital. Half the nation’s retailers expect to stop accepting cash before 2025.</p> <p>The nation is now counting the societal costs.</p> <p>The Riksbank, Sweden’s Central Bank, is asking all banks to keep providing and accepting cash while government works out how best to protect those<span> </span><a href="https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/statistics/payments-notes-and-coins/payment-patterns/">who most rely on cash</a><span> </span>– such as those aged 65 or more, those living in rural areas, those with disabilities and recent immigrants.</p> <p>An estimated 1 million Swedes are not comfortable with using a computer or smart phone to do their banking. Immigrants often do not have a bank account or credit history to get a payment card.</p> <p><strong>Considering consequences</strong></p> <p>“If cash disappears that would be a big change, with major implications for society and the economy,” Mats Dillen, the head of the Swedish Parliament Committee studying the issue,<span> </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/21/business/sweden-cashless-society.html">has said</a>. “We need to pause and think about whether this is good or bad and not just sit back and let it happen.”</p> <p>The New York City Council member pushing the bill to ban cashless-only stores, Ritchie Torres, agrees. He is particularly concerned about the issues of class and ethnic discrimination.</p> <p>“I started coming across coffee shops and cafés that were exclusively cashless and I thought: but what if I was a low-income New Yorker who has no access to a card?”<span> </span><a href="http://www.grubstreet.com/amp/2018/11/new-bill-would-make-cash-free-businesses-restaurants-illegal.html">Ritchie Torres has explained</a>. “I thought about it more and realised that even if a policy seems neutral in theory it can be racially exclusionary in practice.</p> <p>"In some ways making a payment card a requirement for consumption is analogous to making identification a requirement for voting. The effect is the same: it disempowers communities of colour.”</p> <p>These are timely reminders that we should never assume that technological change is value-free, or necessarily an improvement. All revolutions have their hidden costs. We need to ensure those costs are shared equitably, and that no one is accidentally disadvantaged by them.</p> <p><em>Written by Steve Worthington. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/depending-on-who-you-are-the-benefits-of-a-cashless-society-are-greatly-overrated-113268">The Conversation.</a></em></p>

Money & Banking

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