A global map showing where babies were expected to be born in 2025 has highlighted a demographic trend with growing implications for Australia.
Based on 2024 United Nations population projections, the map estimates births in every country last year. India alone was projected to record more than 23 million births in 2025, accounting for about 17 per cent of all births worldwide. China, despite having the only comparably large population, was expected to contribute about 6 per cent of global births, or roughly one-third of India’s total.
Australia’s figure was far smaller. The country was projected to have around 300,000 births, representing just 0.2 per cent of the global total, or about a 78th of India’s number.
Asia and Africa were expected to account for 84 per cent of all births globally in 2025. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh alone were projected to contribute about one-quarter of all babies born worldwide.
The same demographic pattern is already being reflected in Australia’s immigration profile. This year, India overtook England for the first time as Australia’s largest overseas-born population.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show there are now 971,000 Indian-born residents in Australia, narrowly ahead of the 970,000 people born in England. China ranks third with 732,000 residents, followed by New Zealand and the Philippines.
The change marks a demographic shift that has been building for decades. For much of Australia’s modern history, migration patterns were shaped by historical links to Britain. But India now produces more than 38 babies for every one born in the UK, and migration trends are increasingly being influenced by demographics rather than history.
As populations age across Europe and East Asia, the largest groups of young workers are becoming more concentrated in South Asia and, increasingly, Africa. Dr Alan Gamlen, director of Australian National University’s Migration Hub, previously said “youth is becoming a scarce global resource which we’re all competing for”.
In that context, the birth map also points to where future workers, students and migrants are likely to come from.
A central issue in the migration debate is falling fertility rates. Across much of the developed world, birthrates have dropped well below the roughly 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain population levels without migration.
South Korea recorded a fertility rate low of 0.72 in 2023. Japan, China, Singapore and much of Europe are facing similar pressures. Australia’s fertility rate has also fallen to near-record lows at 1.48 births per woman.
Critics of high migration often argue governments should focus on increasing births among existing residents, including through better housing affordability and lower migration. But experts say no country has found a reliable way to reverse fertility decline once it takes hold in highly developed societies.
Despite years of pro-natalist policies, tax incentives, baby bonuses and family support programs, countries across East Asia have largely failed to restore fertility to replacement levels.
“Policies that really explicitly target reversing fertility decline have not been successful,” Philip O’Keefe, professor of practice at the UNSW School of Business and expert in global demographic transitions, said.
“Any expectation that you can significantly reverse that decline is probably not borne out by the experience.”
Experts say family policies can still have value. Subsidised childcare, paid parental leave and flexible work arrangements can improve quality of life, lift workforce participation and reduce barriers for parents, even if they do not produce a sustained rise in birthrates.
Australians aged 65 and over now make up roughly one-fifth of the population. The number of Australians aged 85 and over is projected to double by 2042, passing one million.
According to a United Nations Population Fund report across 14 surveyed countries, 18 per cent of reproductive-age adults believed they would be unable to have the number of children they desired. Nearly 23 per cent said they had experienced a time when they wanted a child but felt unable to have one at their preferred time. More than 40 per cent of those respondents said they ultimately had to forgo having a child entirely.
“What you see in surveys across these various Asian countries is when they ask young adults, couples or singles, how many kids they would like to have? Typically the answer is about half a child or more higher than they’re actually having,” Professor O’Keefe said.
Housing affordability, financial pressure, job insecurity, education costs and the unequal burden of caring responsibilities have all been identified as contributing factors.
At the same time, developed economies are adapting in other ways. Workers are generally more educated than previous generations, while technological advances, automation and artificial intelligence are helping offset labour shortages.
“That fall in absolute numbers … is certainly mitigated by the fact that the quality of the younger, smaller cohorts is significantly better in terms of their human capital and thus productivity,” Professor O’Keefe said.
“In addition, if you can complement the shrinking working age population with greater capital investment, including technology and AI, that should further enhance their productivity.”
Migration remains one of the main tools available to countries managing ageing populations, and Australia remains more open to it than countries such as Japan, South Korea and China.
Overseas-born residents now account for 32 per cent of Australia’s population, the highest share since the 19th century. That has given Australia access to a labour and skills pool that many ageing economies are only beginning to seek.
Professor O’Keefe said falling fertility could also be understood as part of broader development gains.
“Women are better educated,” Professor O’Keefe said.
“People are living longer, healthier lives. Infant mortality has dropped dramatically.
“Falling fertility … it’s a triumph of development. These challenges are a result of success, not a result of failure.”
The global birth map captures a shift in where population growth is now concentrated. For Australia, that shift is already visible in migration, and it is likely to remain a major factor in the country’s demographic future.
