Cost of living pressure is nudging more Australians into a crime most would never have considered a few years ago: driving off from the petrol station without paying. A new report has found that rising everyday expenses, not just petrol prices themselves, are the bigger driver behind the trend, and the pattern has implications for how safe our local servos feel and how much we all end up paying at the bowser.
The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics launched its investigation after petrol theft climbed sharply once the COVID-19 pandemic eased, even though fuel prices had stayed relatively steady. Its report found that a 1% rise in petrol prices was linked to a 1% rise in thefts. A 1% rise in the broader cost of living, however, was linked to a 6% jump in theft rates.
Executive director Jackie Fitzgerald told the Australian Associated Press the difference comes down to how people cope with financial strain over time. “Cost of living pressure tends to mount up over time, and that will encourage people to commit these kinds of crimes, but they can weather a short-term fluctuation,” she said.
What stands out to Fitzgerald is who is now involved. “It’s not just a criminal subclass that is involved in these matters,” she said. “It’s kind of bleeding into other parts of the community.”
Part of the reason the crime keeps spreading is that it rarely carries a cost for those who commit it. Police lay charges in only 4 to 8% of petrol theft cases, according to the report. “People are more likely to engage in crime if they think they can get away with it,” Fitzgerald said. “There’s clearly some people whose economic situation is sufficiently dire that they will start to consider those options.”
Rates of petrol theft in NSW actually peaked in 2024, ahead of the price spike triggered by the Iran-Israel-US conflict in early 2026. Rowan Lee, chief executive of the Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association, told AAP the rise in thefts has been felt nationwide rather than in any single state or territory. His association has also recorded a rise in aggression towards service station staff, many of whom are on the front line dealing with drivers who simply drive off.
One option under discussion is requiring motorists to pay before they fill up, a change that would add friction to every visit to the pump but could take some of the temptation out of hard times. “It’s inconvenient for people,” Fitzgerald said, “but this study suggests you could turn on those kind of strategies when the conditions are ripe for an increase in petrol theft.”
For now, the servo down the road remains a small but telling barometer of how households are coping. When the cost of living climbs, it seems, more people start looking for ways to make the numbers add up, one tank at a time.
