Fadi Haddara, a Melbourne crime family patriarch who was said to be in “semi-retirement”, is clinging to life after being shot multiple times outside his Altona North home on Sunday night. The 48-year-old was found in a pool of blood outside his Marigold Ave address.

The shooting has alarmed police, who are now concerned about the possibility of retaliatory violence linked to the city’s “tobacco wars”. Haddara had once been suspected of being a major player in the illicit tobacco trade, but the rise of Kazem “Kaz” Hamad’s notorious Commission had squeezed out rivals in the billion-dollar industry in Melbourne and beyond, sidelining the Haddaras years ago.

Victoria Police released CCTV footage on Tuesday showing a white Holden Commodore driving past Haddara’s home several times between 4.48pm and 5.45pm on the afternoon of the shooting. Police said in a statement the vehicle was “at times was parked in the vicinity for an extended period”.

“At this time, it is unknown what connection this vehicle may have with the shooting and police are keen to speak to anyone who can identity the vehicle and its owner or occupants.”

Detective Inspector Adam Tilley said on Monday that the Victoria Police taskforce targeting Hamad’s crew was feeding intelligence into the investigation into Haddara’s shooting. He said “nothing has jumped out to us at the moment that there was a current threat” against Haddara, and added that a motive had not been established.

“We hope this isn’t the start of any ongoing feud,” he said.

There had been speculation that Hamad’s arrest in Iraq in January could spark a power struggle for control of the market in Melbourne and Australia. In the weeks after his arrest, several businesses and homes linked to the Haddara syndicate were firebombed or shot up.

Iraqi authorities announced in July that Hamad had been jailed for life after being convicted of drug trafficking. Police believe, however, that his crew has been taken over by lieutenants and had even allegedly expanded its campaign of firebombings to target hospitality venues.

The group had previously focused on controlling the illicit tobacco trade, burning shops that sold rival products or did not pay what has become known as the “Kaz tax”. Signs have also been appearing on shopfronts across Melbourne urging owners to “call The Commission” in allegedly brazen extortion attempts.

Haddara was an associate of Sam “The Punisher” Abdulrahim, a slain Melbourne boxer and underworld figure known to be in conflict with Hamad at the time of his death in 2025. Another of Haddara’s associates Mohammed “Afghan Ali” Kehstiar was shot dead near a gym in South Yarra in 2023. His brother Mohammed was killed in a shooting on Fifth Ave, Altona North, in 2009. A Docklands restaurant owned by Fadi Haddara was firebombed in 2023.

The ABC reported on Tuesday a senior law enforcement source said the attempted hit on Haddara was likely a “power move” from an enemy.

“Someone trying to show who’s boss within,” the source reportedly said.

An underworld source also speculated Haddara could have come into conflict with Hamad’s group, while another told the broadcaster: “Surely this starts a big change of events.

“It makes them look weak,” they said.

Criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said he believed the attack on Haddara was “more than a message” from his enemies.

“I think it’s a it’s an absolutely final attempt to try and get rid of him,” he said on the Today show.

“So it represents an escalation in many ways.”

He said the tobacco wars reminded him of Melbourne’s infamous “underbelly” gangland war of the 1990s and 2000s, and he expected more violence.

“I don’t want to be an alarmist, but I’ve worked with these (types of) people … in the criminal psychology arena for over 40 years,” he said.

“I think it’s quite likely that there will be retaliation in this case, that people are not going to take this lying down.”