A new poll has shed light on why support for One Nation is surging after Pauline Hanson’s party overtook the Liberals for the first time amid growing dissatisfaction with the major parties following the country’s worst terror attack to date.
The Freshwater poll, published in the Herald Sun on Wednesday, found that concerns over immigration and crime were fuelling increased support for the minor party.
Cost of living pressures remained the top issue for voters, with 66 per cent nominating it as the most important priority for the federal government, followed by housing and accommodation at 38 per cent.
However, nearly one-third of voters said they were concerned about crime and social order, while 27 per cent cited immigration and asylum issues, according to the poll of 1050 voters.
Around two-thirds of voters said Australia’s current immigration levels were too high.
The poll placed One Nation’s primary vote at 19 per cent – up 13 points since the May 2025 federal election – while Senator Hanson recorded a net favourability rating of plus 6 per cent. This compared with minus 9 per cent for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and minus 5 per cent for Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.
“We’ve definitely seen an increase generally in the rise of immigration as an issue and we also see crime quite high on the issue agenda,” Freshwater Strategy head of research Jordan Meyers told the Herald Sun.
“These really are two of the key issues that One Nation have focused on historically and Pauline Hanson’s been very active post events in Bondi in December last year, so that’s definitely led to a boost in their support as a party.”
The findings follow a Newspoll published in The Australian on Monday, which showed One Nation overtaking the Coalition with a primary vote of 22 per cent – up seven points in two months.
The Coalition’s primary vote fell three points to a record low of 21 per cent, while Labor dropped four points to 32 per cent, according to the survey of 1224 voters conducted between Monday and Thursday last week.
It waa the first time in Australia’s history that a minor party has polled higher than a major party. The combined primary vote for the Coalition now sits at a record low of 53 per cent, with 47 per cent of voters backing One Nation, the Greens, independents or other minor parties.
Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition has narrowed to 55-45, matching the outcome of last May’s election.
An earlier DemosAU poll, published on January 8, placed One Nation and the Coalition tied at 23 per cent, with Labor on 29 per cent – representing a 16.6-point swing to One Nation since the election.
While that poll suggested Labor held a two-party-preferred lead of 52-48 against the Coalition, analysis indicated Labor and One Nation would be tied 50-50 in a two-party-preferred contest.
This was due to stronger preference flows from the Coalition to One Nation than in the reverse direction, according to DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos.
“Australia is now on the cusp of following several European countries where a far-right populist party is now challenging for government in the polls,’’ he said.
“It’s not that shocking when you see other polls, for example, in the United Kingdom, showing a Reform Party lead over a first term UK Labour government.”
The DemosAU survey found nearly one in three Coalition voters from the 2025 election had switched to One Nation, along with 11 per cent of Labor voters.
Hasanakos said the Bondi attacks had tested the leadership of both major party leaders.
“The recent terrorist attack in Bondi has shocked the nation and put issues such as national security, anti-Semitism, immigration and community cohesion firmly in the spotlight,” he said.
“With the rising support of One Nation before this event, it makes this fertile ground for a longstanding anti-immigration voice in Ms Hanson to gain further support. Combine this with the electorate’s increasing frustration over the rising cost of living, it’s no surprise that many Australians are looking for alternatives.”
Speaking about the Newspoll results on Monday, Senator Hanson said she was ready to fight for government, despite One Nation holding no seats in the House of Representatives.
“I think what Australia is lacking now with both the major political parties is leadership,” she told reporters.
“People are fed up, they’ve had enough. They’re struggling with the cost of living. I’m not just here to prop up the Coalition or the Labor Party or anyone else. I have put out clear policies now for three decades.”
She added that “we need to fight for this country, our cultural identity, who we are as Australians”.
“It is not racism to call out or criticise policy which the both major political parties have tried to advocate,” she said.
The veteran senator, first elected to parliament 30 years ago and currently suspended from the Senate after wearing a burqa in the chamber last year, said the December 14 Bondi massacre by alleged Islamic extremists was a wake-up call on mass migration.
“Do you think it was by chance?’’ she said.
“It is about Islam. It is about the people that we brought into the country. They’re not people compatible and suitable for this country. Why do we now have to turn around, make laws to start reining them in. Why don’t we look at these people before we allow them into our country? That’s what we’ve got to start questioning.”
Speaking on KIIS FM, the prime minister said the polling result was “a worry”.
“They can appeal to grievances, but they’re a pretty divisive lot,” Albanese said.
“We do see a rise in populism of a right-wing variety that can often cause considerable division.
“And I think it’s a worry. I’m a believer in mainstream politics, and that the parties of government are important. It’s served this country pretty well.”
Senator Hanson hit back at Albanese on Sky News later that evening.
“What a hypocrite he is,” she said.
“I’ve got no time for him. The worst Prime Minister of this country has ever had.”
She added that his claim she was divisive was “a pot calling the kettle black”.
Senator Hanson pointed to Albanese’s attempt to introduce the Voice to Parliament in 2023 and what she described as a lack of action on anti-Semitism.
She finished with a warning to Ley over Labor’s hate speech and gun laws, which passed parliament on Tuesday night following a two-day sitting despite several Coalition defections.
“One Nation voted against both bills in protest against this rushed, dog’s breakfast,” Ms Hanson wrote on X after the Senate passed the legislation 38-22.
Images: Sky News
