The Liberal Party is facing an unprecedented challenge from One Nation in South Australia, with new polling suggesting the party could be wiped out in next month’s state election.
The latest Newspoll, conducted for The Australian, revealed One Nation’s support has surged to 24 per cent, while the Liberals’ primary vote has plummeted to just 14 per cent. If replicated across the state, the results could see the Liberals lose all 13 of their seats, particularly in rural and regional electorates where their hold has been tenuous.
By contrast, the Greens’ support remains at 12 per cent, half that of One Nation, while Labor continues to dominate with 44 per cent of the primary vote. The figures signal a near-certain landslide for Premier Peter Malinauskas, who has led the state government since 2022, following the ousting of Liberal predecessor Steven Marshall.
The Newspoll also measured voter sentiment towards party leaders, showing Mr Malinauskas as the preferred premier for 67 per cent of respondents, with 27 per cent dissatisfied. Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn trails at 19 per cent.
A separate statewide YouGov poll, conducted for The Advertiser, painted a similarly bleak picture for the Liberals. It recorded 20 per cent primary support for the party, compared with 22 per cent for One Nation, while Labor leads 59 per cent to 41 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
Analysts have been closely watching South Australia as a barometer of One Nation’s growing influence, amid a national trend of rising support for the far-right populist party. At a federal level, One Nation’s primary support overtook the Coalition during the final stages of Sussan Ley’s leadership of the opposition.
With polling closing just a month before the March 21 election, the Liberal Party faces one of the most precarious positions in its history, with both major and minor party shifts reshaping South Australia’s political landscape.
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