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Woman cured of Type 1 diabetes in life-changing clinical trial

<p>Marlaina Goedel was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes when she was just five-years-old, and not only was the disease controlling her, but it almost cost her life. </p> <p>"I've crashed my car into a brick building before having a diabetic attack while driving," Goedel recalled. </p> <p>Her condition was so extreme that she felt robbed of a normal childhood, telling the <em>Daily Mail </em>that she was in and out of hospital with  life-threatening diabetic ketoacidosis, which causes toxic chemicals to build up in the blood due to a lack of insulin.</p> <p>Now 30-years-old, the Illinois woman no longer needs daily insulin shots and can finally enjoy sugar again thanks to a pioneering stem cell therapy that has cured her of type 1 diabetes. </p> <p>Goedel was one of three Americans who have been cured of their type 1 diabetes thanks to the clinical trial involving an islet cell transplant. </p> <p>It is a one-off infusion that involved transplanting islet cells into her liver to help her body produce insulin on its own. </p> <p>After four weeks, she no longer needed to take insulin. </p> <p>"[My doctor] said, ‘Mark it on your calendar. Today is the day. Stop all insulin,'" Goedel said of the life-changing moment. </p> <p>"I just went quiet and finally said, ‘I’m here. I’m in shock. I’m going to need you to repeat that.’"</p> <p>The trial was being run at the University of Chicago Medicine Transplant Institute. </p> <p>While Islet cell transplants isn't a new procedure, the current anti-rejection medication used can be toxic to the transplanted cells, potentially making it less effective over time. </p> <p>The clinical trial that ran at the university tested out a new antibody called tegoprubart, which was given to Goedel and the two other patients. </p> <p>Tegoprubart is made from lab-made antibodies that trick the immune system into thinking the body made the cells on its own, preventing them from being rejected. </p> <p>The patients were then given islet cells from a deceased donor's pancreas, which were then infused into the patient's small blood vessels in their liver. Those cells then lodged into the blood vessels and started producing insulin. </p> <p>For Goedel the only side effect of the procedure was "feeling like I got punched in the ribs,"  with the procedure lasting just an hour. </p> <p>"The cure is out there," Goedel told the <em>Daily Mail. </em></p> <p>With her new lease on life, Goedel plans to go back to school and go horse riding without worrying about suffering an attack and causing an accident. </p> <p>"It took a while to get used to saying, 'I am cured. I am diabetes free.' It's been very freeing," she said.</p> <p>"No one should have to live with this disease. I know that now more than ever."</p> <p><em>Images: Good Morning America/ UChicago Medicine</em></p> <p> </p>

Caring

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Could a recent ruling change the game for scam victims? Here’s why the banks will be watching closely

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeannie-marie-paterson-6367">Jeannie Marie Paterson</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicola-howell-1160247">Nicola Howell</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847">Queensland University of Technology</a></em></p> <p>In Australia, it’s scam victims who foot the bill for the overwhelming majority of the money lost to scams each year.</p> <p>A 2023 <a href="https://download.asic.gov.au/media/mbhoz0pc/rep761-published-20-april-2023.pdf">review</a> by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) found banks detected and stopped only a small proportion of scams. The total amount banks paid in compensation paled in comparison to total losses.</p> <p>So, it was a strong statement this week when it was revealed the Australian Financial Conduct Authority (AFCA) had <a href="https://my.afca.org.au/searchpublisheddecisions/kb-article/?id=f9f8941f-7379-ef11-ac20-000d3a6acbb4">ordered</a> a bank – HSBC – to compensate a customer who lost more than $47,000 through a sophisticated bank impersonation or “spoofing” scam.</p> <p>This decision was significant. An AFCA determination is binding on the relevant bank or other financial institution, which has <a href="https://www.afca.org.au/make-a-complaint#:%7E:text=Any%20determinations%20we%20make%20are,service%20is%20free%20to%20access">no direct right of appeal</a>. It could have implications for the way similar cases are treated in future.</p> <p>The ruling comes amid a broader push for sector-wide reforms to give banks more responsibility for <a href="https://www.fico.com/blogs/detection-prevention-tackling-scams-every-angle">detecting</a>, deterring and responding to scams, as opposed to simply telling customers to be “more careful”.</p> <p>Here’s what you should know about this landmark ruling, and what it might mean for consumers.</p> <h2>A highly sophisticated ‘spoofing’ scam</h2> <p>You might be familiar with “push payment” scams that trick the victim into paying money to a dummy account. These include the “<a href="https://www.acma.gov.au/articles/2024-01/scam-alert-re-emergence-hi-mum-scam">mum I’ve lost my phone</a>” scam and some <a href="https://www.scamwatch.gov.au/types-of-scams/online-dating-and-romance-scams">romance</a> scams.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/dragged-kicking-and-screaming-banking-giant-loses-battle-against-scam-victim-20241015-p5kide.html">recent case</a> concerned an equally noxious “bank impersonation” or “spoofing” scam. The complainant – referred to as “Mr T” – was tricked into giving the scammer access to his HSBC account, from which an unauthorised payment was made.</p> <p>The scammer sent Mr T a text message, purportedly asking him to investigate an attempted Amazon transaction.</p> <p>In an effort to respond to the (fake) unauthorised Amazon purchase, Mr T revealed security passcodes to the scammer, enabling them to transfer $47,178.54 from his account and disappear with it.</p> <p>The fact Mr T was dealing with scammers was far from obvious – scammers had information about him one might reasonably expect only a bank would know, such as his bank username.</p> <p>On top of this, the scam text message appeared in a thread of other legitimate text messages that had previously been sent by the real HSBC.</p> <h2>AFCA’s ruling</h2> <p>HSBC argued to AFCA that having to pay compensation should be ruled out under the <a href="https://download.asic.gov.au/media/lloeicwb/epayments-code-published-02-june-2022.pdf">ePayments Code</a>, a voluntary code of practice administered by ASIC.</p> <p>Under this code, a bank is not required to compensate a customer for an unauthorised payment if that customer has disclosed their passcode. The bank argued the complainant had voluntarily disclosed these codes to the scammer, meaning the bank didn’t need to pay.</p> <p>AFCA disagreed. It noted the very way the scam had worked was by creating a sense of urgency and crisis. AFCA considered that the complainant had been manipulated into disclosing the passcodes and had not acted voluntarily.</p> <p>AFCA awarded compensation covering the vast majority of the disputed transaction amount, lost interest charged to a home loan account, and $5,000 towards Mr T’s legal costs.</p> <p>It also ordered the bank to pay compensation of $1,000 for poor customer service in dealing with the matter, including communication delays.</p> <h2>Other cases may be more complex</h2> <p>In this case, the determination was relatively straightforward. It found Mr T had not voluntarily disclosed his account information, so was not excluded from being compensated under the ePayments Code.</p> <p>However, many payment scams fall outside the ePayments Code because they involve the customer directly sending money to the scammer (as opposed to the scammer accessing the customer’s account). That means there is no code to direct compensation.</p> <p>Still, AFCA’s jurisdiction is broader than merely applying a code. In considering compensation for scam losses, AFCA must consider what is “fair in all the circumstances”. This means taking into account:</p> <ul> <li>legal principles</li> <li>applicable industry codes</li> <li>good industry practice</li> <li>previous AFCA decisions.</li> </ul> <p>Relevant factors might well include whether the bank was proactive in responding to known scams, as well as the challenges for individual customers in identifying scams.</p> <h2>Broader reforms are on the way</h2> <p>At the heart of this determination by AFCA is a recognition that, increasingly, detecting sophisticated scams can be next to impossible for customers, which can mean they don’t act voluntarily in making payments to scammers.</p> <p>Similar reasoning has informed a range of recent reform initiatives that put more responsibility for detecting and responding to scams on the banks, rather than their customers.</p> <p>In 2023, Australia’s banking sector committed to a new “<a href="https://www.ausbanking.org.au/scam-safe-accord/">Scam-Safe Accord</a>”. This is a commitment to implement new measures to protect customers, including a confirmation of payee service, delays for new payments, and biometric identity checks for new accounts.</p> <p>Changes on the horizon could be more ambitious and significant.</p> <p>The proposed <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2024-573813">Scams Prevention Framework</a> legislation would require Australian banks, telcos and <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/accc-vs-big-tech-round-10-and-counting">digital platforms</a> to take reasonable steps to prevent, detect, report, disrupt and respond to scams.</p> <p>It would also include a compulsory external dispute resolution process, like AFCA’s, for consumers seeking compensation for when any of these institutions fail to comply.</p> <p>Addressing scams is not just an Australian issue. In the United Kingdom, newly introduced <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy94vz4zd7zo">rules</a> make paying and receiving banks responsible for compensating customers, for scam losses up to £85,000 (A$165,136), unless the customer is grossly negligent.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241558/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeannie-marie-paterson-6367">Jeannie Marie Paterson</a>, Professor of Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicola-howell-1160247">Nicola Howell</a>, Senior lecturer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847">Queensland University of Technology</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-a-recent-ruling-change-the-game-for-scam-victims-heres-why-the-banks-will-be-watching-closely-241558">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Money & Banking

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Desperate search after Aussie man swept out to sea while saving swimmer

<p>A desperate search is underway for an Australian man who got swept out to sea while saving a tourist from drowning on a Bali beach. </p> <p>Craig Laidley, 56, was walking along Balian Beach about 4.15pm on Wednesday when he heard 29-year-old Micro Stalla calling out for help.</p> <p>The Perth man rushed into the water to save the German tourist, but unfortunately Laidley never made it back to shore after being swept out to sea by an "extreme" wave. </p> <p>Laidley, who reportedly lives in Bali, was last seen “drifting back out to the ocean”.</p> <p>He was reported missing to police about three hours later, and they immediately launched a search, with  with Denpasar Search and Rescue Office head Nyoman Sidakarya confirming the search is still ongoing. </p> <p>“[On Wednesday] night our team tried to search for victims using land searches and today the Denpasar Search and Rescue Office dispatched 10 people with land and sea SRU divisions,” Sidakarya said. </p> <p>“Information from the team at the location is that the wave conditions are extreme," he added. </p> <p>Rescue teams used rubber boats to search for Laidley within a 10km radius of where he was last seen and also scoured the coastline on foot.</p> <p>Police have also conducted interviews with witnesses as part of their ongoing search. </p> <p>One witness said that there were no warning signs around the beach, despite the dangers. </p> <p>“Incidents like this happen often here,” he told the ABC.</p> <p>“About four months ago, a foreigner went missing. He was found dead 4 hours later. In the last five years, there have been five incidents like this.”</p> <p>Laidley's family have appealed to the public to help find him. </p> <p>“Hello, our family is seeking assistance from the public in Bali,” Craig’s nephew posted on Facebook.</p> <p>“Craig was last seen helping a male that was reportedly drowning in the ocean between Tebing Balian rocks near Balian Beach.</p> <p>“He was then seen drifting back out to the ocean after saving this man’s life.”</p> <p>The search is set to continue on Friday morning. </p> <p>The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) said it is providing consular assistance to the family of an Australian reported missing in Indonesia.</p> <p><em><strong>Editors Update: </strong></em></p> <p>Craig Laidley’s body has been found on the beach on Friday morning by searchers. His two brothers, Bruce and Glenn, arrived in Bali overnight to join the search. </p> <p>His family are  still coming to terms with the loss, but have told <em>7News </em>that they are proud of his heroic rescue and glad that his brothers were there to bring him home.</p> <p><em>Images: Denpasar Search and Rescue Agency/ Facebook</em></p>

Caring

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Readers response: How do you handle changes in energy levels as you age?

<p>As we get older, our levels of energy, ability and agility can slowly start to decrease, making us change our day-to-day lifestyles. </p> <p>We asked our readers how they handle these changes, and the response was overwhelming. Here's what they said. </p> <p><strong>Margo Courtney</strong> - Eat clean and healthy and your body will reward you with heaps of energy and vitality. I have a very big green smoothie most days as one of my 2 meals, along with 2 litres of water a day, and I don't even need much sleep.</p> <p><strong>Ron Stubbs</strong> - Up at 8am, can’t be late for my walk in the sun, and feeling great. Don’t need afternoon snooze then. I’m 77.</p> <p><strong>Kristeen Bon</strong> - I don’t handle them. I flop on the couch most afternoons for a quick five minute interior eye check!</p> <p><strong>Sylvia Brice</strong> - I have an autoimmune disease so my levels of energy are way down. I do what l can in small bursts and rest when l need to. Luckily l read and craft so can always do them. It's very hard to adapt but that's life and l am so much better for off than younger people with my disease. Think positive.</p> <p><strong>Judie Fisher</strong> - Do chores in small stretches, and have regular breaks.</p> <p><strong>Diane Green</strong> - Adjust. I do what I can, and what I can't just has to wait.</p> <p><strong>Raymond Richards</strong> - As they told us at the heart clinic, if you have something you HAVE to do - do it first.</p> <p><strong>Janis St George</strong> - Listen to your body - rest awhile when you need to.</p> <p><strong>Kaylene Samuels</strong> - Have a SCAN..... Seniors Compulsory Afternoon Nap.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p>

Body

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Eight simple changes to our neighbourhoods can help us age well

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jerome-n-rachele-251972">Jerome N Rachele</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-catholic-university-747">Australian Catholic University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-f-sallis-407885">James F Sallis</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-san-diego-1314">University of California, San Diego</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/venurs-loh-118864">Venurs Loh</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-catholic-university-747">Australian Catholic University</a></em></p> <p>Where we live can play a big part in ageing well, largely because of the links between physical activity and wellbeing. <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/2181/AHURI_Final_Report_No214_Downsizing-amongst-older-Australians.pdf">Research shows</a> that two-thirds of Australians prefer to age in place. That is, we want to live independently in our homes for as long as we can. Our neighbourhoods and their design can then improve or hinder our ability to get out of the house and be physically active.</p> <p>The rapid ageing of Australia’s population only adds to the importance of neighbourhood design. In 2016, 15% of Australians were aged 65 or older. That proportion is <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports-statistics/population-groups/older-people/overview">projected to double</a> by 2056.</p> <p>These trends present several <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports-statistics/population-groups/older-people/reports">social and economic challenges</a>, particularly for the health sector. Designing neighbourhoods in ways that promote physical activity can help overcome these challenges.</p> <h2>Eight simple steps</h2> <p>The following is a short list of <a href="https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12966-017-0471-5">evidence-based steps</a> local and state governments can take to assist older people to be physically active. These involve minor but effective changes to neighbourhood design.</p> <p><strong>Improve footpaths:</strong> Research indicates that older people have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-older-people-get-osteoporosis-and-have-falls-68145">higher risk of falls</a>. Ensuring footpaths are level and crack-free, and free from obstructions, will encourage walking among older people – especially those with a disability.</p> <p><strong>Connected pedestrian networks:</strong> Introducing footpaths at the end of no-through-roads and across long street blocks reduces walking distances to destinations. This makes walking a more viable option.</p> <p><strong>Slowing traffic in high-pedestrian areas:</strong> Slowing traffic <a href="https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/images/uploads/publications/Safe-Speed-Evidence-Report.pdf">improves safety</a> by reducing the risk of a collision. It also reduces the risk of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28557669">death and serious injury</a> in the event of a collision.</p> <p><strong>Age-friendly street crossings:</strong> Installing longer pedestrian crossing light sequences gives older pedestrians <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/41/5/690/47318/Most-older-pedestrians-are-unable-to-cross-the">more time to cross</a>, and installing refuge islands means those who walk more slowly can cross the street in two stages.</p> <p><strong>Disabled access at public transport:</strong> Although a form of motorised transport, public transport users undertake more incidental physical activity compared with car users. This is because they walk between transit stops and their origins and destinations. Improving disabled access helps make public transport a viable option for more older people.</p> <p><strong>Places to rest:</strong> <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-13-1054">Providing rest spots</a> such as benches enables older people to break up their walk and rest when needed.</p> <p><strong>Planting trees:</strong> Planting trees <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953614004109?via%3Dihub">creates more pleasant scenery</a> to enjoy on a walk. It also provides shade on hot days.</p> <p><strong>Improving safety:</strong> Ensuring that streets are well-lit and reducing graffiti and signs of decay are likely to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24552845">improve perceptions of safety</a> among older people.</p> <h2>Why physical activity matters</h2> <p>Physical function – the ability to undertake everyday activities such as walking, bathing and climbing stairs – often declines as people age. The reason for this is that ageing is often accompanied by a reduction in muscle strength, flexibility and cardiorespiratory reserves.</p> <p>Regular physical activity can <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14552936">prevent or slow the decline</a> in physical function, even among those with existing health conditions.</p> <p>Middle-to-older aged adults can reduce their risk of physical function decline <a href="https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1479-5868-7-38">by 30%</a> with regular physical activity (at least 150 minutes per week). This includes recreational physical activity, like walking the dog, or incidental physical activity, such as walking to the shops or to visit friends.</p> <p>By making minor changes as outlined above, the health and longevity of our elderly population can be extended. Such changes will help our elderly age well in place.</p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jerome-n-rachele-251972">Jerome N Rachele</a>, Research Fellow in Social Epidemiology, Institute for Health and Ageing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-catholic-university-747">Australian Catholic University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-f-sallis-407885">James F Sallis</a>, Professorial Fellow, Institute for Health and Ageing, Australian Catholic University, and Emeritus Professor, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-san-diego-1314">University of California, San Diego</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/venurs-loh-118864">Venurs Loh</a>, PhD Candidate, Institute for Health and Ageing, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-catholic-university-747">Australian Catholic University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eight-simple-changes-to-our-neighbourhoods-can-help-us-age-well-83962">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002">Andrew Dowdy</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a></em></p> <p>Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes and typhoons in other parts of the world, have caused huge damage in many places recently. The United States has just been hit by <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start">Hurricane Milton</a>, within two weeks of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hurricane-helene-became-a-deadly-disaster-across-six-states-240522">Hurricane Helene</a>. Climate change <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-key-driver-of-catastrophic-impacts-of-hurricane-helene-that-devastated-both-coastal-and-inland-communities/">likely made their impacts worse</a>.</p> <p>In Australia, the tropical cyclone season (November to April) is approaching. The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/">long-range forecast</a> for this season.</p> <p>It predicts an average number of tropical cyclones, 11, are likely to form in the region. Four are expected to cross the Australian coast. However, the risk of severe cyclones is higher than average.</p> <p>So what does an average number actually mean in our rapidly changing climate? And why is there a higher risk of intense cyclones?</p> <p>The bureau’s forecast is consistent with scientific evidence suggesting climate change is likely to result in fewer but more severe tropical cyclones. They are now more likely to bring stronger winds and <a href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1251/2024/hess-28-1251-2024.pdf">more intense rain and flooding</a>.</p> <h2>Climate change is making prediction harder</h2> <p>Our knowledge of tropical cyclones and climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1">globally</a> and for the Australian region. This work includes our studies based on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4">observations</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4">modelling</a>.</p> <p>The bureau’s seasonal outlook in recent years has assumed an average of 11 tropical cyclones occurring in our region (covering an area of the southern tropics between longitudes 90°E and 160°E). It’s based on the average value for all years back to 1969.</p> <p>However, for the past couple of decades the annual average is below nine tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, it was over 12. This long-term downward trend adds to the challenge of seasonal predictions.</p> <p>The most recent above-average season (assuming an average of 11) was almost 20 years ago, in the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/">2005–06 summer with 12 tropical cyclones</a>. Since then, any prediction of above-average tropical cyclone seasons has not eventuated.</p> <h2>El Niño and La Niña influences may be changing too</h2> <p>Historical observations suggest more tropical cyclones tend to occur near Australia during La Niña events. This is a result of warm, moist water and air near Australia, compared with El Niño events. The shifting between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).</p> <p>Such events can be predicted with a useful degree of accuracy several months ahead in some cases. For example, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">forecast</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>La Niña is favored to emerge in September–November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025.</p> </blockquote> <p>Based on that, one might expect a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region. However, the <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asl2.502">ENSO influence on tropical cyclones has weakened</a> in our region. It’s another factor that’s making long-range predictions harder.</p> <p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/">bureau’s ENSO outlook</a> is somewhat closer to neutral ENSO conditions, based on its modelling, compared to NOAA’s leaning more toward La Niña. The bureau says:</p> <blockquote> <p>Should La Niña form in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived.</p> </blockquote> <p>The bureau’s prediction of an average number of tropical cyclones this season is broadly consistent with its prediction of close-to-average ENSO conditions.</p> <h2>So what does this all mean for this cyclone season?</h2> <p>If we end up getting an average Australian season for the current climate, this might actually mean fewer tropical cyclones than the historical average. The number might be closer to eight or nine rather than 11 or 12. (Higher or lower values than this range are still possible.)</p> <p>However, those that do occur could have an increased chance of being <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones</a>. These have stronger winds, with gusts typically exceeding 225km per hour, and are more likely to cause severe floods and coastal damage.</p> <p>If we end up getting more than the recent average of eight to nine tropical cyclones, which could happen if NOAA predictions of La Niña conditions eventuate, that increases the risk of impacts. However, there is one partially good news story from climate change relating to this, if the influence of La Niña is less than it used to be on increasing tropical cyclone activity.</p> <p>Another factor is that the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/sst/#/anom/global/weekly/20241006">world’s oceans are much warmer than usual</a>. Warm ocean water is one of several factors that provide the energy needed for a tropical cyclone to form.</p> <p>Many ocean heat <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2">records have been set</a> recently. This means we have been in “uncharted waters” from a temperature perspective. It adds further uncertainty if relying on what occurred in the past when making predictions for the current climate.</p> <h2>Up-to-date evidence is vital as climate changes</h2> <p>The science makes it clear we need to plan for tropical cyclone impacts in a different way from what might have worked in the past. This includes being prepared for potentially fewer tropical cyclones overall, but with those that do occur being more likely to cause more damage. This means there are higher risks of damaging winds, flooding and coastal erosion.</p> <p>Seasonal prediction guidance can be part of improved planning. There’s also a need for enhanced design standards and other climate change adaptation activities. All can be updated regularly to stay consistent with the best available scientific knowledge.</p> <p>Increased preparedness is more important than ever to help reduce the potential for disasters caused by tropical cyclones in the current and future climate.</p> <hr /> <p><em>The authors acknowledge the contribution of CSIRO researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hamish-ramsay-19549">Hamish Ramsay</a> during the writing of this article.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241000/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002"><em>Andrew Dowdy</em></a><em>, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, Associate Professor, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict-241000">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Travel Trouble

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Why one baby king penguin is Sea Life's new social media star

<p>A baby king penguin at Sea Life Melbourne has become the aquarium's newest celebrity for one massive reason: his size. </p> <p>Pesto the king penguin is just nine months old and 22.5 kilogram, which is already bigger than his parents. </p> <p>Photos of Pesto, who is just 90 centimetres tall, towering over his parents have gone viral online, with thousands of people shocked at the animal's whopping size. </p> <p>When Pesto was born, he broke the record of being the biggest chick ever born at Sea Life. </p> <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-Crh17SzVD/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-Crh17SzVD/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Herald Sun (@heraldsunphoto)</a></p> </div> </blockquote> <p>"I think he's always going to be a big boy," says Sea Life penguin keeper Michaela Smale. She said that once he fledges, "he will shrink and slim down a little but he's already significantly taller than his dad."</p> <p>Despite being less than a year old, adulthood is already on the horizon as Pesto has started losing some of his baby feathers, with swimming lessons from his dad likely to be starting soon.</p> <p>"Sometimes they become quite independent teenagers, so maybe he's ready for his bad boy phase," says Smale.</p> <p>"I hope he retains some of his quirky personality and hopefully we can follow his adventures as he becomes part of the colony."</p> <p><em>Image credits: Instagram </em></p> <div class="" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"> <div id="adspot-mobile-mobile-3-above" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"></div> </div>

Domestic Travel

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Why isn’t dental included in Medicare? It’s time to change this – here’s how

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-breadon-1348098">Peter Breadon</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kate-griffiths-94706">Kate Griffiths</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a></em></p> <p>When the forerunner of Medicare was established in the 1970s, dental care was left out. Australians are still suffering the consequences half a century later.</p> <p>Patients pay much more of the cost of dental care than they do for other kinds of care.</p> <p><a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Schneider_Mirror_Mirror_2021.pdf">More</a> Australians delay or skip dental care because of cost than their peers in most wealthy countries.</p> <p>And as our dental health gets <a href="https://theconversation.com/reform-delay-causes-dental-decay-its-time-for-a-national-deal-to-fund-dental-care-217914">worse</a>, fees keep on rising.</p> <p>For decades, a litany of reports and inquiries have called for universal dental coverage to solve these problems.</p> <p>Now, with the Greens <a href="https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/tax-big-corporate-profits-fix-peoples-teeth-greens">proposing</a> it and Labor backbenchers <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/dental-on-medicare-must-be-next-frontier-for-labor-backbenchers/news-story/1c69314d7609815b937ced5af4542ba0">supporting</a> it, could it finally be time to put the mouth into Medicare?</p> <h2>What’s stopping us?</h2> <p>The Australian Dental Association <a href="https://ada.org.au/ada-responds-to-the-greens-dentistry-in-medicare-proposal">says</a> the idea is too ambitious and too costly, pointing out it would need many more dental workers. They say the government should start small, focusing on the most vulnerable populations, initially seniors.</p> <p>Starting small is sensible, but finishing small would be a mistake.</p> <p>Dental costs aren’t just a problem for the most vulnerable, or the elderly. More than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/health-services/patient-experiences/2022-23/patient_experience_202223_tables_13_to_15.xlsx">two million</a> Australians avoid dental care because of the cost.</p> <p>More than <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/a053aa74-c471-436e-ab7e-a82e83ae73a3/aihw_den_231_dentalcare_oralhealthanddentalcareinaustralia_tranche7_21NOV2023.xlsx">four in ten</a> adults usually wait more than a year before seeing a dental professional.</p> <p>Bringing dental into Medicare will require many thousands of new dental workers. But it will be possible if the scheme is <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/915-Filling-the-gap-A-universal-dental-scheme-for-Australia.pdf">phased in</a> over ten years.</p> <p>The real reason dental hasn’t been added to Medicare is it would cost billions of dollars. The federal government doesn’t have that kind of money lying around.</p> <p>Australia has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-budget-is-full-of-good-news-but-good-news-isnt-the-same-as-good-management-230110">structural budget problem</a>. Government spending is growing faster than revenue, because we are a relatively <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/can-we-talk-about-a-fairer-more-prosperous-australia/">low-tax country with high service expectations</a>.</p> <p>The growing cost of health care is a major contributor, with hospitals and medical benefits among the top six fastest-growing major payments.</p> <p>The structural gap is only <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">likely to grow</a> without major policy changes.</p> <p>So, can we afford health care for all? We can. But we should do it with smart choices on dental care, and tough choices to raise revenue and reduce spending elsewhere.</p> <h2>Smart choices about a new dental scheme</h2> <p>The first step is to avoid repeating the mistakes of Medicare.</p> <p>Medicare payments to private businesses haven’t attracted them to a lot of the communities that need them the most. Many rural and disadvantaged areas are <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-live-in-a-bulk-billing-desert-its-hard-to-see-a-doctor-for-free-heres-how-to-fix-this-204029">bulk-billing deserts</a> with too few GPs.</p> <p>The poorest areas have more than <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/A-new-Medicare-strengthening-general-practice-Grattan-Report.pdf">twice</a> the psychological distress of the wealthiest areas, but they get about half the Medicare-funded mental health services.</p> <p>As a result, government money isn’t going where it will make the biggest difference.</p> <p>There are about <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/dental-oral-health/oral-health-and-dental-care-in-australia/contents/hospitalisations/potentially-preventable-hospitalisations">80,000</a> hospital visits each year for dental problems that could have been avoided with dental care. If there is too little care in disadvantaged and rural communities, where oral health is worst, that number will remain high.</p> <p>That’s why a significant share of new investment should be quarantined for public dental services, with those services targeted to areas where people are missing out on care.</p> <p>Another problem with Medicare is its payments often have little relationship to the cost of care, or the impact that care has on the patient’s health.</p> <p>To tamp down costs, Medicare funding for dental care should exclude cosmetic treatments and orthodontics. It should be based on efficient workforce models where dental assistants and therapists use all their skills – you might not always need to see a dentist.</p> <p>The funding <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2019-06/apo-nid241086.pdf">model</a> should take account of a patient’s needs, reward giving them ongoing care, and have a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/915-Filling-the-gap-A-universal-dental-scheme-for-Australia.pdf">cap</a> on spending per patient.</p> <p>Oral health should be measured and recorded, to make sure patients and taxpayers are getting results.</p> <h2>Tough choices to balance the budget</h2> <p>Those steps would slash the cost of The Greens’ plan, which is hard to estimate but might reach more than <a href="https://www.pbo.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-09/Putting%20dental%20care%20into%20Medicare.pdf">$20 billion</a> a year once it’s phased in. Instead, the cost would fall to roughly <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/filling-the-gap/">$7 billion</a> a year.</p> <p>That would be a good investment. But if you’re worried about where the money will come from, there are good ways to pay for it.</p> <p>Many reforms could reduce government health budgets without harming patients.</p> <p>There is waste in government funding of <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/935-blood-money.pdf">pathology</a> tests and <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/823-Premium-Policy4.pdf">less cost-effective</a> medicines.</p> <p>In some hospitals, there are <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/806-costly-care.pdf">excessive costs</a> and potentially harmful <a href="https://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/qhc/28/3/205.full.pdf">low-value care</a>.</p> <p>Over the longer-term, investments in <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/The-Australian-Centre-for-Disease-Control-ACDC-Highway-to-Health-Grattan-Report.pdf">prevention</a> can reduce demand for health care. A <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Sickly-Sweet-Grattan-Institute-Report-May-2024.pdf">tax on sugary drinks</a>, for example, would improve health while raising hundreds of millions of dollars a year.</p> <p>Measures like this would help the government pay for more dental care. But demand for health care will keep growing as the population ages, and as expensive <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-11/proposal-to-speed-up-medicine-approvals/104338766">new treatments</a> arrive.</p> <p>This means a broader strategy is needed to meet the three goals of balancing the budget, keeping up with growing health-care demand, and bringing dental into Medicare.</p> <p>There are no easy solutions, but there are many options to reduce spending and boost revenue without hurting economic growth.</p> <p>Choosing Australia’s infrastructure and defence megaprojects <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/back-in-black-a-menu-of-measures-to-repair-the-budget/">more wisely</a> could save several billion dollars each year.</p> <p>Undoing Western Australia’s special GST funding deal – <a href="https://www.austaxpolicy.com/western-australia-gst-deal-the-worst-australian-public-policy-decision-of-the-21st-century-thus-far/">described</a> by economist Saul Eslake as “the worst Australian public policy decision of the 21st Century thus far” – would save another <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/back-in-black-a-menu-of-measures-to-repair-the-budget/">$5 billion</a> a year.</p> <p>Reducing income tax breaks and tax minimisation opportunities – including by reining in superannuation tax concessions, reducing the capital gains tax discount, limiting negative gearing, and setting a minimum tax on trust distributions – could raise more than <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/back-in-black-a-menu-of-measures-to-repair-the-budget/">$20 billion</a> a year.</p> <p>Major tax reform like this offers economic benefits while creating space for better services such as universal dental coverage.</p> <p>No one likes spending cuts and tax hikes, but they will be needed <a href="https://theconversation.com/chalmers-has-a-70-billion-a-year-budget-hole-here-are-13-ways-to-fill-it-203331">sooner or later</a> regardless. Dental coverage might be just the sweetener taxpayers need to accept it.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/239086/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-breadon-1348098"><em>Peter Breadon</em></a><em>, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kate-griffiths-94706">Kate Griffiths</a>, Deputy Program Director, Budgets and Government, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-isnt-dental-included-in-medicare-its-time-to-change-this-heres-how-239086">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Money & Banking

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Climate change threatens Australian tourism more than is widely believed. Here’s why

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a></em></p> <p>Right now, Australia is one of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/travel-tourism-development-index-2024/">top five</a> tourist destinations in the world, a distinction the World Economic Forum says it shares with only the United States, France, Spain and Japan.</p> <p>So important is tourism to Australia’s economy that the best estimates are it employs <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/en/economic-analysis/state-of-the-industry">655,000</a> people, 12 times as many as <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/jul-2024">Australia’s coal industry</a>.</p> <p>And most of them are employed in <a href="https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/files/zurich-mandala-climate-risk-index-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-australian-tourism-industry.pdf">regional locations</a>, where jobs are scarce.</p> <p>This month a report by the Zurich insurance group and the economic consultancy Mandala found <a href="https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/files/zurich-mandala-climate-risk-index-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-australian-tourism-industry.pdf">half</a> of Australia’s top 178 tourism assets were at risk from foreseeable climate change.</p> <p>There are reasons to believe its findings underplay what we are facing.</p> <h2>All major airports, all national parks at risk</h2> <p>The Zurich-Mandala report examines the impact of a 2⁰C increase in global temperatures on only eight so-called “climate perils”: wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain.</p> <p>It found that more than half of Australia’s top tourism assets faced a “significant risk from multiple perils” over the next 25 years, including all of Australia’s major airports.</p> <p>Scheduling disruptions and the closure of airports in extreme weather conditions were set to have major impacts on the transport of goods, the transport of tourists and accessibility for emergency services.</p> <p>All of Australia’s vineyards, national parks, scenic roads and railways were at risk.</p> <p>Queensland had the highest number of sites facing significant risk (79%) followed by Western Australia (69%) and the Northern Territory (63%).</p> <p>The report uses the impact of the 2019-20 <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/AustralianBushfires">black summer bushfires</a> to estimate that 176,000 jobs might be at risk nationwide from predictable climate change, most of them outside of Australia’s capital cities.</p> <h2>Multiple and interacting threats</h2> <p>Here is why I am fearful that the report underplays the threat Australia’s tourism industry is facing.</p> <p>There are many more threats to tourism from climate change than wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain.</p> <p>One is the threat to biodiversity. Iconic animals and habitats are an important part of Australia’s brand.</p> <p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-28/3-billion-animals-killed-displaced-in-fires-wwf-study/12497976">Three billion</a> animals were killed or displaced in the black summer bushfires.</p> <p>The deaths caused <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/01/alexis-wright-black-summer-bushfires-vigil-sydney-speech-3-billion-animals-killed-are-our-relatives-they-deserve-to-be-mourned">loss and grief</a> that risk indexes are incapable of capturing, but that nonetheless might make tourism less attractive.</p> <p>And biodiversity helps in another way by <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Hayward-Et-Al.-2016-Could-biodiversity-loss-have-increased-Australias-bushfire-threat.pdf">protecting against bushfires</a>, meaning that as species vanish, other risks to tourism climb in ways that aren’t captured in the assumptions used to evaluate risk.</p> <h2>Threats unexamined</h2> <p>What makes holiday locations unattractive is hard to measure, but is fed by extreme weather events.</p> <p>Although temporary, the smoke and heat from the 2019-20 bushfires made parts of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra almost unlivable for a while, damaging the reputations of Australian capital cities in a way that is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-a-good-look-bushfire-smoke-threatens-to-pollute-sydney-s-tourist-image-20191206-p53hpl.html">probably ongoing</a>.</p> <p>Another curious omission, especially curious given that the report was prepared by an insurance company, is the damage extreme weather events do to the insurability of tourism assets.</p> <p>The report is also silent on the effort to reduce carbon emissions on Australia’s desirability as an international destination.</p> <p>For many tourists, air travel is the only way to get to Australia and it is likely to become more expensive and also less attractive as tourists try to reduce their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652614011810">carbon footprints</a>.</p> <p>Australia might increasingly become an Australian rather than an international destination.</p> <p>Our biggest upcoming international promotion, the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, might lose a good deal of its shine, with Queensland tourism assets at the greatest risk from climate change, and those risks set to climb over time.</p> <h2>The higher the temperature the bigger the threats</h2> <p>Zurich and the Mandala consultancy are to be commended for identifying 178 top tourism assets and examining eight types of risk they face.</p> <p>Their finding that just over half of them face serious threats from those risks is likely to be an underestimate because it excludes other risks and fails to examine the way in which some risks can intensify others.</p> <p>And they will be an underestimate if global temperatures climb by more than 2⁰C.</p> <p>The report says if global temperatures climb to 3⁰C above pre-industrial levels, 80% of the Australian sites it examined will face serious threats.</p> <p>Australia could attempt to limit the increase in global temperatures by taking up the opportunity to co-host the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-a-big-deal-if-australia-and-the-pacific-are-chosen-to-host-un-climate-talks-heres-why-238320">2026 UN climate talks</a> with Pacific nations.</p> <p>It would give us a shot at making a difference and drawing attention to our present status as one of the world’s top tourism destinations.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/238768/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, Adjunct professor and adjunct senior lecturer in tourism management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-australian-tourism-more-than-is-widely-believed-heres-why-238768">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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What the government’s home care changes mean for ageing Australians

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tracy-comans-696663">Tracy Comans</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805">The University of Queensland</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/frances-batchelor-2209350">Frances Batchelor</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p>The Albanese government has this week announced it will introduce one of the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-anika-wells-mp/media/once-in-a-generation-aged-care-reforms">largest reforms</a> to Australia’s aged-care sector to date.</p> <p>The package includes a A$4.3 billion investment in home care, now called “<a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/support-at-home">Support at Home</a>”, to come into effect from July 2025. This reflects both the desire of many people to remain living at home as they age, and the government’s desire to reduce the costs of residential aged care.</p> <p>So what changes is the government making to home care packages? And what will these changes mean for ageing Australians?</p> <h2>Reducing waiting times</h2> <p>One of the major complaints about the current home care system is the long waiting times. Estimates suggest there’s a <a href="https://www.gen-agedcaredata.gov.au/getmedia/447b425c-63d6-4b96-a1fc-4dac805066ba/Home-Care-Packages-Program-data-report-1-January-%E2%80%93-31-March-2024">6–to-12-month wait</a> for the higher level 3 and 4 home care packages. For people with the highest needs, this is far too long.</p> <p>As of March this year, around <a href="https://www.gen-agedcaredata.gov.au/getmedia/447b425c-63d6-4b96-a1fc-4dac805066ba/Home-Care-Packages-Program-data-report-1-January-%E2%80%93-31-March-2024">45,000 people</a> were waiting for any level of home care. An additional 14,000 were already receiving a package, but on a lower level of home care than they were entitled to.</p> <p>With additional funding, the new system will <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-anika-wells-mp/media/once-in-a-generation-aged-care-reforms">support more participants</a>. It aims to shorten wait times to <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-09/support-at-home-fact-sheet.pdf">an average of three months</a> from July 2027.</p> <h2>Changes to services</h2> <p>The new system will replace the current four levels of home care packages with <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-anika-wells-mp/media/once-in-a-generation-aged-care-reforms">eight classifications</a> of funding for services. When participants are assessed, they will be assigned the most suitable category. There’s currently very limited information on what these classifications are, but the idea is they will provide more targeted services.</p> <p>A number of short-term supports will also be available. These include assistive technology (such as mobility aids) and home modifications. Some people will be able to access 12 weeks of restorative care – a more intensive program designed to build function after injury or illness – as well as palliative care support.</p> <p>The way different types of services are subsidised is also changing. Previously, the same means-tested co-contribution applied regardless of the type of service.</p> <p>Under the new system, services are categorised into clinical care (for example, physiotherapy or wound care), independence (such as help with bathing or cooking) and everyday living (for example, gardening or home maintenance). The new reforms fully subsidise clinical services regardless of income, whereas independence and everyday living services will attract co-contributions based on means testing.</p> <p>For example, <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-09/case-studies-support-at-home.pdf">a self-funded retiree</a> would pay nothing out of pocket for physiotherapy, but would pay 50% for help with showering and 80% towards gardening costs. A full pensioner would also pay nothing for physiotherapy, but pay 5% for help with showering and 17.5% of the cost of gardening.</p> <p>This is a positive change. Our research has previously highlighted a tendency for people with home care packages to choose everyday living services <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1155/2023/4157055">such as gardening</a> and cleaning and refuse clinical care such as allied health and nursing as these types of services were more expensive.</p> <p>These changes should make older people more likely to choose allied health and clinical care services, which will help them maintain their function and stay fitter for longer.</p> <h2>Some challenges</h2> <p>For the government’s reforms to deliver faster and better support at home, a number of issues need to be addressed.</p> <p>As people stay at home for longer, we also see that these <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/52/5/afad058/7147101">people are frailer</a> and have more health conditions than in the past. This requires a different and more highly skilled home care workforce.</p> <p>The current <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/10/2020-aged-care-workforce-census.pdf">home care workforce</a> consists largely of personal care and domestic support workers alongside a much smaller skilled workforce of registered nurses and allied health professionals.</p> <p>But with the changing profile of people receiving care at home, there will need to be a greater focus on maintaining functional capacity. This might mean more allied health input will be required, such as from physiotherapists and occupational therapists.</p> <p>It’s difficult to source an appropriately skilled workforce across the sector, and almost impossible in <a href="https://www.ruralhealth.org.au/sites/default/files/publications/fact-sheet-allied-health.pdf">rural and remote areas</a>. Alternative models, such as training personal care workers to act as allied health assistants, and effectively using technology such as telehealth, will be necessary to meet demand without compromising on quality of care.</p> <p>One example of the need for upskilling in specific areas relates to caring for people with dementia. The majority of people who are living with dementia at home receive care from family carers, supported by home care workers. It’s vital that these care workers have adequate knowledge and skills specific to dementia.</p> <p>However, research has shown the home care workforce may <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31646701/">lack the knowledge and skills</a> to provide best-practice care for people living with dementia. Specialised <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gps.6140">dementia training</a> for home care workers is effective in improving knowledge, attitudes and sense of competence in providing care. It should be rolled out across the sector.</p> <h2>What about unpaid care at home?</h2> <p>Unpaid carers, such as family members, provide <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/draft-national-strategy-care-and-support-economy/goal-1-quality-care-and-support/support-for-informal-carers">significant amounts of care</a> for older people. The value of this unpaid care is estimated to be in the billions. As older people stay at home for longer, this is set to increase even further.</p> <p>However, carers with high care burdens are particularly vulnerable to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827316300283#s0025">poor physical and mental health</a>. Without adequate support, we may find extra caring pressures lead to a breakdown in caring relationships and an increase in other health-care costs for both the carer and care recipient.</p> <p>So we need to ensure carers have adequate financial, psychological and practical support. But the currently available detail on the reforms doesn’t indicate this has been adequately addressed.</p> <p>With careful implementation and ongoing evaluation, these reforms have the potential to significantly enhance the home care system. However, their success will depend on addressing workforce challenges, ensuring adequate support for unpaid carers, and maintaining a focus on the holistic needs of older Australians.</p> <p><em>More information about Support at Home is <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/support-at-home/about">available online</a>.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/238890/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tracy-comans-696663"><em>Tracy Comans</em></a><em>, Executive Director, National Ageing Research Institute; Professor, Centre for Health Services Research, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805">The University of Queensland</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/frances-batchelor-2209350">Frances Batchelor</a>, Director Clinical Gerontology &amp; Senior Principal Research Fellow, National Ageing Research Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-governments-home-care-changes-mean-for-ageing-australians-238890">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Chaos erupts over last-minute cruise itinerary change

<p>Passengers onboard a Carnival Cruise have demanded refunds after their travel itinerary changed once they had already boarded the ship. </p> <p>Guests aboard Carnival’s Vista had booked the eight-night Southern Caribbean cruise out of Port Florida on August 10th intending to stop in Aruba, Curacao and Turks and Cacaos, with the eight-day cruise averaging $11,700 per person.</p> <p>However, as boarding was taking place, the cruise line sent passengers a notification saying their had been a change of plans due to an engine problem.</p> <p>Carnival crew members had discovered a “technical issue affecting the ship’s cruising speed” which forced the cruise line to alter the itinerary, the cruise line told the New York Post, with Vista instead traveling to the Bahamas, making stops at Nassau, Princess Cays, Freeport, and Half Moon Cay. </p> <p>While a cruise worker was trying to explain the situation to passengers, some started chanting "Give us our money!" while staff tried to diffuse the situation.</p> <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_OYKHVvIIh/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_OYKHVvIIh/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Only in Florida (@onlyinfloridaa)</a></p> </div> </blockquote> <p>“Ladies and gentlemen, the way you’re going about this with the noise and chaos isn’t going to solve any issues,” one cruise employee explained to the passengers, according to video obtained by Inside Edition.</p> <p>The passengers were given several choices once the cruise line determined the need for an itinerary change, as the cruise line said in a statement. </p> <p>“We communicated directly with guests on board regarding their options for the sailing,” Carnival said.</p> <p>“Those that sailed were given an on-board credit as well as a future cruise credit toward another cruise to make up for the unexpected change, and those who preferred not to sail were offered a 100 per cent refund.” </p> <p>Even with the choice of not cruising to the Bahamas, passengers were still frustrated with Carnival for the last-minute announcement.</p> <p>“They knew about the problem prior to us getting onto the ship,” Ashley Ball told the outlet. “They just didn’t say that until we were already on the ship, and, you know, went through customs and the lines and securities and all that, and then decided to display that information.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Instagram</em></p>

Travel Trouble

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Millions warned over huge change to speed cameras

<p>For years, drivers in New South Wales have relied on the point-to-point speed camera rule, which only captures the speed of heavy vehicles, but that rule is set to change as part of a new trial as the state attempts to lower their death toll. </p> <p>The point-to-point, also known as average speed cameras are set to be turned on for all vehicles in two regional locations during the trial. </p> <p>The first location will be 15-kilometre stretch on the Pacific highway between Kew and Lake Innes in Port Macquarie, and the second location will be on the Hume Highway between Coolac and Gundagai, with 16km between the two cameras. </p> <p>“NSW is the only jurisdiction in the world to use average speed cameras but restrict their use to heavy vehicles only,” Roads Minister John Graham said.</p> <p>“In the context of a rising road toll, now is the time to trial these cameras for light vehicles and understand if we can keep more people safe on the road more of the time.”</p> <p>He added that all other states in Australia, as well as the UK and Norway have found the average speed cameras to be effective. </p> <p>“All other mainland Australian states and countries like the UK, Norway, Italy and the Netherlands have found average speed cameras to be effective and we aim to be as rigorous as possible to be sure they will also reduce road trauma in NSW.”</p> <p>“Rather than test your speed at a particular point in time, like a mobile speed camera, these test the speed you’re driving over 15 or 16 kilometres,” he said.</p> <p>“That means it’s a truer reflection of how quickly people are driving.”</p> <p>He added that the trial is focused on regional NSW as it has suffered a disproportionate amount of road fatalities, with six road deaths and 33 serious injuries between 2018 and 2022. </p> <p>“Although only a third of people live in regional New South Wales, that’s where two thirds of the deaths from road crashes happen," he said. </p> <p>Speeding contributed to 44 per cent of NSW road fatalities last year,  three-quarters of which were in the regional parts of the state.</p> <p>The trial will run for six months, and for those caught speeding, they will be given a 60-day warning letter period, before financial and licence penalties kick in.</p> <p><em>Images: news.com.au</em></p>

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‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em></p> <p>Heavy winds struck south-east Australia over the weekend as a series of cold fronts moved across the continent. It followed a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-weather-update-nsw-and-victoria-damaging-winds-high-fire-danger-warnings/0f9b19d8-dc81-44c9-8df4-679cbb67c055">high fire danger</a> in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales last week, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/fire-grass-emergency-warning-firefighter-horningsea-park/104281180">a fire in south-west Sydney</a> that threatened homes.</p> <p>The severe weather rounds out a weird winter across Australia. The nation’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/winter-heat-records-broken-as-australia-set-for-more-temperatures-over-10c-above-average">hottest ever winter temperature was recorded</a> when Yampi Sound in Western Australia reached 41.6C on Tuesday. Elsewhere across Australia, winter temperatures have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/28/nsw-weather-forecast-fire-danger-warnings-sydney-bom">way above average</a>.</p> <p>We can look to the positives: spring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/australias-early-spring-brings-budding-flowers-chirping-birds-and-climate-alarm">flowers are blooming early</a>, and people have donned t-shirts and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/spring-comes-early-after-warm-winter-with-more-heat-on-the-way-20240828-p5k63i.html">hit the beach</a>. But there’s a frightening undercurrent to this weather.</p> <p>Earth’s climate has become dangerously <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/">unstable</a>, and it’s only a matter of time before we get the bad combination of hot and dry weather, strong winds and a spark. None of this should come as a surprise. The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate.</p> <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/003XSg5AZBk?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>The green is deceiving</h2> <p>The landscape around Sydney – and in fact, across much of south-east Australia – is very green at the moment. That’s because we’ve had a couple of years of good rains which triggered an explosion of vegetation growth.</p> <p>The below NASA satellite image reveals the picture in stark detail. It’s certainly lush out there at the moment.</p> <p>But the problem with climate change is that weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">damaging winds</a> – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire.</p> <p>The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal.</p> <p>We must open our minds to this, if we want to be prepared.</p> <h2>A climate off the rails</h2> <p>The year 2023 was Earth’s <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2023-was-warmest-year-modern-temperature-record#:%7E:text=The%20year%202023%20was%20the,decade%20(2014%E2%80%932023).">hottest on record</a>. And <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">2024 looks likely</a> to be hotter still.</p> <p>In Australia, the last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails.</p> <p>In October 2023, Victoria’s Gippsland region suffered unseasonably early bushfires, then soon after battled <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-05/gippsland-fires-and-multiple-floods-breeding-resilience/103179368">heavy rain and flooding</a>.</p> <p>And Tasmania, where I live, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-07/tas-drought-conditions-as-dry-tasmania-looking-very-brown/103546058">has been gripped by drought</a>. This February was Hobart’s third driest in 143 years. But over the weekend we were hammered by a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/tas-flood-warnings-severe-weather-sunday/104296092">deluge of rain and wind</a>.</p> <p>This climate instability is setting up bad fire conditions. Not everywhere in south-east Australia will be hit by fire, but it will happen somewhere. It could be the hinterlands or the coast. It will depend on how our erratic climate behaves in the coming months.</p> <p>Let’s stick with the Tasmania example. Sure, the surface soils are now nicely saturated. But that will lead to a burst of grass and other vegetation in spring. If the dry weather returns and the temperatures heat up in summer, the fine fuels will dry out and become dangerously combustible.</p> <p>All we need then is a windy day and a spark, and a nightmare fire will soon be racing across the landscape.</p> <h2>Canada on fire</h2> <p>Of course, Australia is not the only country facing climate instability and a worsening fire risk.</p> <p>Canada suffered a catastrophic wildfire season in 2023 – one of the most severe on record. It burnt almost 15 million hectares and forced the evacuation of 232,000 people.</p> <p>Smoke produced by the fires affected communities up to 1,000 km away, such as in southern Canada and on the east coast of the United States.</p> <p>A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02653-6">recent paper</a> in the journal Nature Communications outlined why. It pinpointed early snowmelt, early-season drought conditions and intense heat. In fact, the average temperature in Canada from May to October last year was 2.2°C higher than the 30-year average.</p> <p>The researchers said human-caused climate change exacerbated the fire’s effects. It went on:</p> <blockquote> <p>The disproportionate effect a few days of extreme weather can have on the total area burned is also evident in this fire season, leading to worrisome prospects given projected future conditions.</p> </blockquote> <h2>Normal no longer exists</h2> <p>It’s always been difficult to forecast fire seasons in Australia, due to our natural climate variability.</p> <p>But now we are seeing climate instability <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/previous/state-of-the-climate-2018/australias-changing-climate">layering over itself</a>: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures.</p> <p>Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur.</p> <p>As we saw in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer of 2019–20</a>, and again in Canada last year, some fires are so intense they completely overwhelm fire suppression strategies.</p> <p>Under climate change, the likelihood of getting a bad combination of weather conditions is increasing. So what’s the remedy?</p> <p>Australia really must start making our communities more resilient. Serious and sustained adaptation is needed. As my <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">research has outlined</a>, this requires the careful integration of:</p> <ul> <li>community education programs</li> <li>research and development to design fire-safe homes, gardens, communities and bushland</li> <li>incentives and penalties to ensure adaptation measures are implemented.</li> </ul> <p>As this winter has shown, Australia’s climate is entering a different phase. It’s time to give up on “normal” weather. The game is changing and we have to adapt.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237857/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Travel Trouble

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Hamish Blake reveals single most life-changing interview moment

<p>Hamish Blake has revealed the A-list celebrity's candid answer to an interview questions that had a profound impact on his perspective. </p> <p>The radio and TV host appeared on the latest episode of the ABC program <em>The Assembly</em>, in which celebrities appear in front of a classroom of Australian university students, all of whom are autistic and studying journalism, and have permission to ask whatever questions they want. </p> <p>After Blake's extensive career, student Silas was keen to ask about what celebrity had the biggest impact on him. </p> <p>“You’ve interviewed a lot of people over the years, what answer to a question has most changed your perspective on life?” Silas asked a clearly-impressed Blake.</p> <p>“Ooooh … really good,” he responded.</p> <p>“We had Richard Branson on [Hamish and Andy], and one of the guys on our radio show, Jack, he basically said to him, ‘You are a billionaire. Can we just go downstairs to the ATM, can you give me a thousand dollars? It’s nothing to you but it will change my month’.”</p> <p>Blake went on to explain that the British entrepreneur gave a surprising response that has stayed with him ever since.</p> <p>“He was like, ‘I’ll tell you what – there’s something I’d give you all my money for’, and Jack’s like, ‘really?’ and [Richard] goes, ‘your age’.</p> <p>“I was like, that’s interesting. Jack was 22, and we were like, ‘What do you mean by that?’ and he said, 'I’d happily be broke and 22 than a billionaire and 68’, or whatever he was at the time.”</p> <p>Blake said the answer had "always stuck with him" and given him a new appreciation for ageing and freedom. </p> <p>“It’s true. I think that it will be true for all of us. As we get older, you’re like, ‘OK, money’s thing in life, a tool that can certainly take some bad situations and discomfort away, but it’s not happiness’. It’s nowhere near the exhilaration of getting to live, and all the best stuff is free,” he said.</p> <p>“I think about that all the time … That always stuck with me, that idea that we’ve got something immediately available to us, that in the future we’d give all our material possessions for.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: ABC </em></p>

TV

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Aussie dad's life-changing $100,000 find

<p>After seven years of hunting for lost items with his metal detector, one Vi dad has struck gold - unearthing a nugget worth about $100,000. </p> <p>Luke Phillips, who shares metal-detecting videos on his YouTube channel <em>Dig It Detecting</em>, recorded the moment found the nugget in the Goldfields region. </p> <p>Phillip initially found tiny flecks of gold in the 150-year-old miner's hole dating back to the Victorian gold rush. It was when he decided to run his detector over a moss-covered log that he heard a faint signal.</p> <p>He rolled the log over and thought he might actually be digging for a horseshoe before repeatedly exclaiming “oh my god” as he realises it was something much bigger. </p> <p>“This is probably the deepest target I’ve ever dug for gold,” Phillips said in the video. </p> <p>“Holy smokes! Mate, we didn’t dig that far for no reason,” he says to his friend, Andrew, as they unearthed the nugget. </p> <p>“Holy smokes, if we didn’t get a gram before we’ve certainly got it now.</p> <p>“Holy f***, look at it!”</p> <p>Phillips then joked his friend would not need his glasses to see the nugget.</p> <p>“I’ve never witnessed or seen or experienced something quite like this,” Phillips said. “I didn’t expect to see gold. That is so cool.”</p> <p>Phillips continued to excavate a larger hole, and couldn't hide how astonished he was. </p> <p>“I never thought I would see this day where I was going to unearth a nugget,” he said.</p> <p>“It’s like an egg ... that’s like a freaking egg.”</p> <p>He took the nugget home where he cleaned it and weighed it at 868.4g.</p> <p>He has reportedly sold the nugget since finding it back in May, and although the sale price was confidential, it was likely to have been sold for a six-figure-price. </p> <p>"It was an exhilarating feeling — I knew it was a once-in-a-lifetime moment. That moment in time will be with me forever," Phillips told <em>9News</em>.</p> <p>The discovery and sale of the gold nugget has been "life-changing" for Phillips after he had to stop working full time due to health issues a few years ago.  </p> <p>He said that the nugget will help out his family in a "big way". </p> <p>"It's not something I'm going to retire on, of course, but it will pay some bills off and we can put a bit on the mortgage, or buy a car," he said.</p> <p><em>Images: YouTube</em></p>

Money & Banking

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Fighting for change: how much cash Olympic medallists actually win at Paris 2024

<p>As the world soaks up the glitz and glamour of Paris 2024, athletes are not just eyeing the podium – they're also thinking about the cash they might pocket. Or, in some cases, the cash they might not pocket. Because while the Olympics is a billion-dollar spectacle, the earnings for athletes can range from princely sums to pocket change.</p> <p><strong>Australia: A Gold Medal and a Discount Coupon</strong></p> <p>Let’s start with the Aussies. Winning gold at the Olympics might be the pinnacle of an athlete's career, but for Australian athletes, it also means... $20,000. Yes, you heard that right. In a land where a house deposit will likely cost you a LOT more, Aussie Olympians are basically getting paid in Monopoly money. Silver and bronze medalists get $15,000 and $10,000 respectively. That's enough for a decent holiday, but you might still need a GoFundMe for the flights.</p> <p><strong>Singapore: the million-dollar carrot</strong></p> <p>On the other end of the spectrum, athletes from Singapore are practically diving into pools of gold – like Scrooge McDuck, but in real life. A gold medal will earn them a staggering AU$1.13 million. That’s the kind of money that makes you forget about the gruelling four-year training cycle and instead think about which colour Lamborghini matches your national flag.</p> <p><strong>Hong Kong: fencing your way to riches</strong></p> <p>Hong Kong, not to be outdone, will reward its fencing champion Vivian Kong with AU$1.17 million for her gold. That’s enough to make you consider taking up fencing, even if you’re as coordinated as a baby giraffe.</p> <p><strong>Malaysia and Kazakhstan: cars and apartments</strong></p> <p>In Malaysia, winning athletes might not get cold hard cash, but they do get a new car. And in Kazakhstan, you can literally earn a place to call home – with more rooms depending on the colour of your medal. A gold gets you a penthouse, a silver a two-bedroom, and a bronze... well, maybe a studio with a view of the parking lot.</p> <p><strong>France: host with the most (ish)</strong></p> <p>The host nation, France, offers a more modest reward of $108,000 for a gold medal. That’s enough to cover a year's rent in Paris, or a really good wine collection. But let’s face it, in the land of fine dining, they might just spend it all on cheese.</p> <p><strong>New Zealand, Norway and the UK: the love of the game</strong></p> <p>Athletes from New Zealand, Norway and the UK? Well, they’ll have to make do with a pat on the back and a hearty “well done”, because there’s no financial incentive for winning a medal in these countries. Just the satisfaction of representing your nation, which, as any athlete will tell you, doesn't pay the bills.</p> <p><strong>The United States: the great divide</strong></p> <p>The US offers $37,500 for a gold medal, but that's chump change compared to the endorsement deals top athletes like swimmer Katie Ledecky pull in. She's reportedly earning $1 million a year from swimwear endorsements. Meanwhile, many other American athletes are scraping by, with some earning less than $15,000 a year. That's barely enough for a year's supply of Weet-Bix, let alone world-class training.</p> <p><strong>Jamaica: sharing the love</strong></p> <p>Jamaica’s Olympic team will share a pot of about AU$3,500 each, regardless of their results. It's the ultimate participation trophy – except it’s not enough to buy a trophy, or even a decent pair of running shoes.</p> <p><strong>World Athletics: the global jackpot</strong></p> <p>World Athletics is offering a $3.6 million prize pool for track and field events, with $76,000 per gold medalist. It's a model that some athletes, like Australia’s Arianne Titmus, think other sports should follow. After all, nothing says “thank you for your hard work” like a big, fat cheque.</p> <p>So, whether they’re racing for millions or just a modest thank you, athletes at Paris 2024 will be giving it their all. Because at the end of the day, it's not just about the money. It's about the glory, the honour, and ... well, okay, it’s mostly about the money.</p> <p><em>Images: Instagram \ Shutterstock</em></p>

Money & Banking

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Stormy seas ahead: Why confidence in the cruise industry has plummeted

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-holland-969445">Jennifer Holland</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-suffolk-3830">University of Suffolk</a></em></p> <p>The cruise industry has weathered many storms, including fairly regular brushes with disease. Outbreaks of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/pub/norovirus/norovirus.htm">norovirus</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294517/">H1N1</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/world/americas/measles-scientology-cruise-ship.html">measles</a> have all happened in the not too distant past. Despite this, a cruise has traditionally been regarded as a safe holiday – the kind where you don’t have to worry about a thing.</p> <p>COVID-19 has changed this. Cruise ships were a hotbed of transmission during the early stages of the pandemic, particularly the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined for six weeks in Japan in spring 2020. It had over <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1632">700 confirmed cases</a>, and for a period was the world’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/20/coronavirus-live-updates-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-japan-deaths-latest-news-china-infections?page=with:block-5e4ea39f8f0811db2fafb3ec#block-5e4ea39f8f0811db2fafb3ec">leading COVID-19 hotspot</a> after China. Coverage of this and other ships’ outbreaks has taken its toll.</p> <p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259019822100035X">Research</a> that I conducted with colleagues in Australia shows that the pandemic has changed how people think of cruise holidays. We surveyed over 600 people in the UK and Australia, both cruisers and non-cruisers, to ask them about their willingness to cruise and future travel intentions, to explore how COVID-19 has affected perceptions of travel and cruise risks.</p> <p>Nearly 45% of interviewees had less belief than before the pandemic that cruise lines are transparent and honest about safety or health issues. Respondents were also fearful of going on a cruise, with 47% saying they don’t trust cruise lines to look after them if something goes wrong. This is staggering for an industry that depends on repeat customers.</p> <p>We further found that 67% of people are less willing to cruise as a result of the pandemic, while 69% said they feel less positive about cruising now. What’s most surprising is that even repeat cruisers said they feel nervous about cruising as a result of the pandemic, with this emotion coming up repeatedly in the survey’s open-ended questions. This is a gamechanger. Until now, loyal cruisers have always come back, with previous disease outbreaks having <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261517716300309">little</a> <a href="http://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_4_No_7_July_2013/2.pdf">impact</a>.</p> <h2>What went wrong?</h2> <p>When the pandemic began, cruise ships immediately suffered high infection rates among passengers and crew. During the first wave, thousands were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/stranded-at-sea-cruise-ships-around-the-world-are-adrift-as-ports-turn-them-away">stranded onboard</a> ships as they were held in quarantine or <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160738320302103?via%3Dihub">refused entry to ports</a> as borders closed. By the end of April 2020, <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241640166.html">over 50 cruise ships</a> had confirmed cases of COVID-19 and at least 65 deaths had occurred among passengers and crew.</p> <p>The story of one ship – the Ruby Princess – gained particular attention. Its passengers were allowed to disembark in Sydney in mid-March, with a number carrying the virus. The ship would go on to be linked to more than <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-53802816">900 COVID-19 cases and 28 deaths</a>. The state of New South Wales later launched a <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-nsw-gov-au/publications/The-Special-Commission-of-Inquiry-into-the-Ruby-Princess-Listing-1628/Report-of-the-Special-Commission-of-Inquiry-into-the-Ruby-Princess.pdf">public inquiry</a> into the ship’s outbreak and found that the state’s ministry of health made a number of serious errors in allowing passengers to get off.</p> <p>It didn’t take long for cruises to be depicted as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/virus-explosion-in-australia-exposes-cruise-ships-hidden-menace">places of danger and infection</a>, particularly in Australia. Lots of information about COVID-19 on cruise ships was published, especially about the <a href="https://cruiseradio.net/the-cruise-ship-story-mainstream-media-got-wrong/">Ruby Princess</a>, grabbing the <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;q=Ruby%20Princess">public’s attention</a>. Undoubtedly, this amplified people’s perceptions of risk around cruise holidays. Our study found that the many stories on COVID-19 also reminded the public of previous illnesses and outbreaks onboard cruise ships.</p> <p>Given the high intensity of media interest in Australia, we weren’t surprised to find that perceived risks were higher there compared with the UK, with willingness to cruise lower. This suggests that there could be regional differences in how difficult it is for the industry to recover after the pandemic.</p> <h2>What happens next?</h2> <p>Most respondents in the study said they would wait until it was safe to cruise again – and there’s probably a long way to go on changing the current perception of cruise ships as giant incubators of disease. It’s doubtful pent-up demand from loyal cruisers will be enough to fill cruise ships to capacity – which is critical for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057%2Fs41278-020-00158-3">long-term economic viability</a> – and so <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-cruise-industry-really-recover-from-coronavirus-144704">financial uncertainty</a> grows.</p> <p>The pandemic has been <a href="https://cruising.org/-/media/Facts-and-Resources/Cruise-Industry-COVID-19-FAQs_August-13-2020">catastrophic</a> for the industry so far, with financial losses of US$50 billion (£36 billion), 1.17 million job losses, 18 cruise ships sold or scrapped and at least <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/cmv-becomes-the-third-cruise-line-to-go-out-of-business-in-a-month">three cruise lines stopping trading</a>. Before the pandemic, a new cruise ship was built <a href="https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news-headlines/golden-age-med-ports-need-prepare-new-generation-large-ships">every 47 days</a>, and off the back of the industry’s robust growth over the past two decades another <a href="https://cruising.org/en-gb/news-and-research/research/2020/december/state-of-the-cruise-industry-outlook-2021">19 ships</a> are due to enter operation in 2021, despite demand very likely to have fallen.</p> <p>To recover, the industry will need to address people’s perceptions of risk, which our research shows have heightened. Risk perception has a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/004728759803700209">significant influence</a> on holiday decision-making, and it will be even more critical post-COVID.</p> <p>In the wake of the pandemic, would-be cruisers will need to think about health protocols, outbreak prevention plans, onboard sanitation procedures, social distancing measures and health screenings. Also, they’ll need to consider the implications of potential outbreaks during the cruise. These could result in being quarantined in their cabin, needing to access healthcare, or even the cruise being terminated.</p> <p>All of this creates uncertainty, which adds to perceptions of risk. The industry will need to provide reassuring answers on all of these points to entice holidaymakers back onboard. Cruise companies will also need to convince customers that they are trustworthy and accountable, given the concerns about honesty and transparency raised by our research.</p> <p>Overall, the sector has been devastated by the pandemic. Possibly no other area of tourism has been as widely affected. A return to the robust growth enjoyed previously is unlikely for many years, if ever. But for there to be any chance of this happening, the industry must understand how the pandemic has affected people’s perceptions of cruises and address their concerns.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152146/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-holland-969445"><em>Jennifer Holland</em></a><em>, Lecturer in Tourism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-suffolk-3830">University of Suffolk</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stormy-seas-ahead-confidence-in-the-cruise-industry-has-plummeted-due-to-covid-19-152146">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Cruising

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Our obsession with taking photos is changing how we remember the past

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/giuliana-mazzoni-175429">Giuliana Mazzoni</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-hull-1191">University of Hull</a></em></p> <p>I recently visited the <a href="http://hermitage--www.hermitagemuseum.org/wps/portal/hermitage/?lng=sv">Hermitage</a> in St Petersburg, Russia – one of the best art museums in the world. I was expecting to serenely experience its masterpieces, but my view was blocked by a wall of smart phones taking pictures of the paintings. And where I could find a bit of empty space, there were people taking selfies to create lasting memories of their visit.</p> <p>For many people, taking hundreds, if not thousands, of pictures is now a crucial part of going on holiday – documenting every last detail and posting it on social media. But how does that affect our actual memories of the past – and how we view ourselves? As an expert on memory, I was curious.</p> <p>Unfortunately, psychological research on the topic is so far scant. But we do know a few things. We use smart phones and new technologies <a href="http://studie-life.de/en/life-reports/smart-payments;%20https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tim_Fawns/publication/275331048_Blended_Memory_the_Changing_Balance_of_Technologically-mediated_Semantic_and_Episodic_Memory/links/56962c6d08ae820ff07594ee.pdf">as memory repositories</a>. This is nothing new – humans have always used external devices as an aid when acquiring knowledge and remembering.</p> <p>Writing certainly serves this function. Historical records are collective external memories. Testimonies of migrations, settlement or battles help entire nations trace a lineage, a past and an identity. In the life of an individual, written diaries serve a similar function.</p> <h2>Memory effects</h2> <p>Nowadays we tend to commit very little to memory – we entrust a huge amount to the cloud. Not only is it almost unheard of to recite poems, even the most personal events are generally recorded on our cellphones. Rather than remembering what we ate at someone’s wedding, we scroll back to look at all the images we took of the food.</p> <p>This has serious consequences. Taking photos of an event rather than being immersed in it has been shown to lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/memory-loss-isnt-just-an-old-persons-problem-heres-how-young-people-can-stay-mentally-fit-102352">poorer recall of the actual event</a> – we get distracted in the process.</p> <p>Relying on photos to remember has a similar effect. Memory needs to be exercised on a regular basis in order to function well. There are many studies documenting the importance of memory retrieval practice – <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.738.2035&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf">for example in university students</a>. Memory is and will remain essential for learning. There is indeed some evidence showing that committing almost all knowledge and memories to the cloud <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/691462">might hinder the ability to remember</a>.</p> <p>However, there is a silver lining. Even if some studies claim that all this makes us more stupid, what happens is actually shifting skills from purely being able to remember to being able to manage the way we remember more efficiently. This is called metacognition, and it is an overarching skill that is also essential for students – for example when planning what and how to study. There is also substantial and reliable evidence that external memories, selfies included, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23957379">can help</a> individuals with memory impairments.</p> <p>But while photos can in some instances help people to remember, the quality of the memories may be limited. We may remember what something looked like more clearly, but this could be at the expense of other types of information. One study showed that while photos could help people remember what they saw during some event, they <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797617694868">reduced their memory of what was said</a>.</p> <h2>Identity distortions?</h2> <p>There are some rather profound risks when it comes to personal memory. Our identity is a product of our life experiences, which can be easily accessed through our memories of the past. So, does constant photographic documentation of life experiences alter how we see ourselves? There is no substantial empirical evidence on this yet, but I would speculate that it does.</p> <p>Too many images are likely to make us remember the past in a fixed way – blocking other memories. While it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-your-first-memory-and-did-it-ever-really-happen-95953">not uncommon for early childhood memories</a> to be based on photos rather than the actual events, these are not always true memories.</p> <p>Another issue is the fact that research has uncovered <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0747563216302503;%20http://www.vulture.com/2014/01/history-of-the-selfie.html">a lack of spontaneity in selfies</a> and many other photos. They are planned, the poses are not natural and at times the image of the person is distorted. They also reflect a narcissistic tendency which shapes the face in unnatural mimics – artificial big smiles, sensual pouts, funny faces or offensive gestures.</p> <p>Importantly, selfies and many other photos are also <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5318447/">public displays</a> of specific attitudes, intentions and stances. In other words, they do not really reflect who we are, they reflect what we want to show to others about ourselves at the moment. If we rely heavily on photos when remembering our past, we may create a distorted self identity based on the image we wanted to promote to others.</p> <p>That said, our natural memory isn’t actually perfectly accurate. Research shows that we often <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-real-you-is-a-myth-we-constantly-create-false-memories-to-achieve-the-identity-we-want-103253">create false memories about the past</a>. We do this in order to maintain the identity that we want to have over time – and avoid conflicting narratives about who we are. So if you have always been rather soft and kind – but through some significant life experience decide you are tough – you may dig up memories of being aggressive in the past or even completely make them up.</p> <p>Having multiple daily memory reports on the phone of how we were in the past might therefore render our memory less malleable and less adaptable to the changes brought about by life – making our identity more stable and fixed.</p> <p>But this can create problems if our present identity becomes different from our fixed, past one. That is an uncomfortable experience and exactly what the “normal” functioning of memory is aimed to avoid – it is malleable so that we can have a non-contradictory narrative about ourselves. We want to think of ourselves as having a certain unchanging “core”. If we feel unable to change how we see ourselves over time, this could seriously affect our sense of agency and mental health.</p> <p>So our obsession with taking photos may be causing both memory loss and uncomfortable identity discrepancies.</p> <p>It is interesting to think about how technology changes the way we behave and function. As long as we are aware of the risks, we can probably mitigate harmful effects. The possibility that actually sends shivers to my spine is that we lose all those precious pictures because of some widespread malfunctioning of our smart phones.</p> <p>So the next time you’re at a museum, do take a moment to look up and experience it all. Just in case those photos go missing.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109285/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/giuliana-mazzoni-175429">Giuliana Mazzoni</a>, Professor of Psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-hull-1191">University of Hull</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-obsession-with-taking-photos-is-changing-how-we-remember-the-past-109285">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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How sustainable is your weekly grocery shop? These small changes can have big benefits

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michalis-hadjikakou-129930">Michalis Hadjikakou</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carla-archibald-283811">Carla Archibald</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ozge-geyik-1402545">Özge Geyik</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pankti-shah-1547393">Pankti Shah</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a></em></p> <p>You might think eating more sustainably requires drastic changes, such as shifting to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/vegan-diet-has-just-30-of-the-environmental-impact-of-a-high-meat-diet-major-study-finds-210152">vegan diet</a>. While a plant-based diet is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00795-w">undeniably</a> good for the Earth, our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352550924001945#f0025">new research</a> shows modest changes to your eating habits can also have significant environmental benefits.</p> <p>We assessed how food products on Australian supermarket shelves stack up against key environmental indicators, such as carbon emissions and water use.</p> <p>We found swapping the most environmentally harmful foods for more sustainable options within the same food group, such as switching from beef burgers to chicken burgers, can significantly reduce carbon emissions – by up to 96% in some instances.</p> <p>The last thing we want to do is take the pleasure away from eating. Instead, we want to help consumers make realistic dietary changes that also help ensure a sustainable future. So read on to find out which simple food swaps can best achieve this.</p> <h2>Informing sustainable diets</h2> <p>The environmental impact of foods can be estimated using an approach known as a <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(19)30128-9#:%7E:text=In%20this%20Primer%2C%20we%20introduce,cycle%20of%20a%20product%20system.">life-cycle assessment</a>.</p> <p>This involves identifying the “inputs” required along the food supply chain, such as fertiliser, energy, water and land, and tracking them from farm to fork. From this we can calculate a product’s “footprint” – or environmental impact per kilogram of product – and compare it to other foods.</p> <p>Most studies of environmental footprints focus on the raw ingredients that make up food products (such as beef, wheat or rice) rather than the packaged products people see on shelves (such as beef sausages, pasta or rice crackers). Of the studies that do focus on packaged foods, most only consider a fraction of the products available to consumers.</p> <p>What’s more, a lot of research considers only the carbon emissions of food products, excluding other important measures such as water use. And some studies use global average environmental footprints, which <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaq0216">vary significantly</a> between countries.</p> <p>Our research set out to overcome these limitations. We aligned environmental footprints with the products people find on supermarket shelves, and covered a huge range of food and beverage products available in Australia. We also included many environmental indicators, to allow a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2120584119">more complete picture</a> of the sustainability of different foods.</p> <h2>What we did</h2> <p>Key to our research was the <a href="https://www.georgeinstitute.org.au/projects/foodswitch">FoodSwitch database</a>, which compiles food labelling and ingredient data from images of packaged food and beverages. It covers more than 90% of the Australian packaged food market.</p> <p>We combined the database with a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623029748">mathematical method</a> that sums the environmental impact of ingredients, to quantify the footprint of the product as a whole.</p> <p>From this, we estimated the environmental footprint of 63,926 food products available in Australian supermarkets. We then simulated the potential benefits of making “realistic” switches between products – that is, switches within the same food category.</p> <h2>Our findings</h2> <p>The results show how making a small dietary change can have big environmental consequences.</p> <p>For a shopping basket composed of items from eight food groups, we simulate the benefits of swapping from high-impact towards medium- or low-impact food products.</p> <p>Our analysis assumes a starting point from the most environmentally harmful products in each food group – for example, sweet biscuits, cheese and beef burger patties.</p> <p>A shift to the medium-impact foods for all eight items – such as a muffin, yoghurt and sliced meat – can lead to at least a 62% reduction in environmental impact. Shifts towards the most sustainable choice for all items – bread, soy milk or raw poultry – can achieve a minimum 77% reduction.</p> <p>This analysis ends at the supermarket shelves and does not include additional food processing by the consumer. For example, raw meat will usually be cooked before human consumption, which will expand its environmental footprint to varying degrees, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-00200-w">depending on the method used</a>.</p> <p>See the below info-graphic for more detail. The full results are available in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352550924001945">our study</a>.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="sR5yB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sR5yB/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>What next?</h2> <p>Many people are looking for ways to live more sustainably. Insufficient or complex information can fuel confusion and anxiety in consumers, <a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-eco-anxiety-is-a-critical-step-in-achieving-any-climate-action-210327">leading to inaction or paralysis</a>. Consumers need more information and support to choose more sustainable foods.</p> <p>Supermarkets and retailers also have an important role to play – for example, by giving sustainable products <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07439156211008898">prominent shelf placement</a>. Attractive pricing is also crucial – particularly in the midst of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/cost-of-living-crisis-115238">cost-of-living crisis</a> when it can be difficult to prioritise sustainability over cost.</p> <p>Government interventions, such as information campaigns and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07439156211008898">taxing high-impact products</a>, can also help.</p> <p>Food labelling is also important. The European Union <a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/circular-economy/eu-ecolabel/product-groups-and-criteria_en">is leading the way</a> with measures such as the <a href="https://docs.score-environnemental.com/v/en">eco-score</a>, which integrates 14 environmental indicators into a single score from A to E.</p> <p>Apps such as <a href="https://www.georgeinstitute.org/projects/ecoswitch">ecoSwitch</a> can also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1326020024000268?via%3Dihub">empower consumers</a>.</p> <p>The diets of people in developed nations such as Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-shopping-want-to-eat-healthy-try-an-eco-friendly-diet-89086">exert a high toll on our planet</a>. More sustainable food choices are vital to achieving a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/EAT">sustainable future for humanity</a>. We hope our research helps kick-start positive change.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/234367/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michalis-hadjikakou-129930">Michalis Hadjikakou</a>, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Sustainability, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering &amp; Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carla-archibald-283811">Carla Archibald</a>, Research Fellow, Conservation Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ozge-geyik-1402545">Özge Geyik</a>, Visitor, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pankti-shah-1547393">Pankti Shah</a>, PhD student, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-sustainable-is-your-weekly-grocery-shop-these-small-changes-can-have-big-benefits-234367">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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